Sunday, August 29, 2010

Last Minute Emmy Predictions

Emmys are tonight, and with a ton of fresh blood in the field it's actually tough to predict this year's crop. Will Emmys keep to their infamous tradition of rewarding the same old same old? Or will they recognize one of the strongest crops of new shows since, well, the year Lost premiered? Here are my (probably very wrong) guesses:

Best Drama
Will Win: Lost (but realistically probably Mad Men)
Should Win: Lost or Dexter
Dark Horse: Pretty much anything but True Blood
Snubbed: Damages
This is a really tough category to call. Do they reward Lost for finishing strong despite a controversial ending (like they did with The Sopranos)? Do they recognize Dexter's best year? Do they reward The Good Wife for being a break-out freshman and a traditional network drama? Do they side with the critics in calling Breaking Bad the top show? Or do they let Mad Men go three for three? Seeing as it's the Emmys, it will probably be Mad Men, but for some reason I'm going with Lost.

Best Comedy
Will Win: Modern Family
Should Win: Modern Family or Glee
Dark Horse: Glee
Snubbed: Party Down
This one's a little easier. Despite 30 Rock winning in all of its three previous years, I think everyone knows this one's really between the two break-out new shows: Glee or Modern Family. Glee's won most of the awards for being the phenomenon of the year, and Emmys have occasionally gone that route in the past (like giving Lost a win in its first year). But Modern Family's so much more Emmy-friendly (and consistent) that I bet it takes the win.

Best Actor, Drama
Will Win: Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Should Win: Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Dark Horse: Bryan Cranston, Hugh Laurie, Jon Hamm
Snubbed: Timothy Olyphant, Justified
Another really tough category. Bryan Cranston won the past two years and Breaking Bad fans say this season's been his best yet, so he's definitely the favorite. But Michael C. Hall's won other awards this year for his best year yet. Plus he's shockingly never won here before. But neither have Hugh Laurie and Jon Hamm, both of whom had very strong submissions. Could go any of the four ways.

Best Actress, Drama
Will Win: Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Should Win: Glenn Close, Damages
Dark Horse: January Jones, Mad Men
Julianna Margulies has won everything else so far, and I think it's a safe bet she'll take this one too.

Best Supporting Actor, Drama
Will Win: Michael Emerson, Lost
Should Win: Terry O'Quinn, Lost
Dark Horse: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Snubbed: Campbell Scott, Damages
There is a very strong chance the two Losties (both of whom have already won) will cancel each other out, and Aaron Paul will win for what I'm told is a fantastic performance. But here's my thoughts: Michael Emerson has the better episode submission, since Dr. Linus is one of the best of the season. But Terry O'Quinn gave the better season-long performance, since he had to play polar opposites in the Man in Black and Sideways Locke. And there's always the chance Andre Braugher takes it instead.

Best Supporting Actress, Drama
Will Win: Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Should Win: Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Dark Horse: Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
Snubbed: Jennifer Carpenter, Dexter
Joan may have been woefully underused last year on Mad Men, but the episode she submitted is a knockout, plus everyone loves her. Though Archie Panjabi is just as much of a scene-stealer on The Good Wife, so the Emmys' clear love for the show could carry over to her. I also wouldn't count out Elisabeth Moss or Christine Baranski.

Best Actor, Comedy
Will Win: Tony Shalhoub, Monk
Should Win: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Dark Horse: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Snubbed: Jay Harrington, Better Off Ted
Tony Shalhoub has won this category so many times that I don't think the rest of the world's disdain will keep Emmy voters from giving it to him one final time. Though in recent years they've loved Alec Baldwin even more. Most people are rooting for Jim Parsons though, so maybe that will pay off?

Best Actress, Comedy
Will Win: Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Should Win: Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Dark Horse: Toni Collette, United States of Tara
Snubbed: Portia de Rossi, Better Off Ted
Emmy voters love Edie Falco, so expect her to be rewarded for making them forget about Carmela. But they also love Toni Collette playing multiple personalities. And they love Tina Fey. But Edie Falco will ultimately win this.

Best Supporting Actor, Comedy
Will Win: Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Should Win: Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Dark Horse: Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Snubbed: Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
As long as this isn't a repeat for Jon Cryer, I'm happy with anybody who wins here. NPH absolutely deserves this award, but deserved it more the past 4 years. Eric Stonestreet would be the obvious Emmy pick, but Ty Burrell is really the stand-out. And while Chris Colfer's nomination was a pleasant surprise, he's probably too young and too dramatic a role to take it. But you never know.

Best Supporting Actress, Comedy
Will Win: Jane Lynch, Glee
Should Win: Jane Lynch, Glee
Dark Horse: Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Snubbed: Lizzy Caplan, Party Down
This seems like one of the biggest no-brainers of the night, though Sofia Vergara is also hilarious. But how can they keep Sue Sylvester from adding another trophy to her case?

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