Oscar Morning

After watching the 8:30 AM announcement of the major Oscar nominees, it appears there were no MAJOR surprises. I can say that since I only missed 4 nominations total from my predictions a few days ago, and went 10 for 10 on best picture. But what do we know so far?

Biggest surprise for me was John Hawkes getting into the best supporting actor category, and totally deserved. I think most of us thought his performance would be a touch too subtle to compete with some of the showier parts this year. But since I'd vote him right behind Christian Bale, I was happy to see him get recognized. Still, sad to see it come at the cost of Andrew Garfield. As much as I love Jeremy Renner, I would have gone with Garfield over him. I hope it doesn't show flagging support for The Social Network.

The second biggest surprise for me was the Coens taking Christopher Nolan's slot in best director. And again, always happy to see the Coens be recognized, but maybe they could have taken David O. Russell's slot instead? It just seems weird that Inception is being recognized for its writing and not its directing.

I imagine the foreign film category was surprising to many, given that it included challenging critics' fave Dogtooth, which from my understanding includes incest and cat killing. But this year has been so devoid of popular foreign film options that I truly don't care. Even with all of the marginally known options nominated (Biutiful, Incendies, In a Better World), I haven't seen any of them and probably won't. What happened to the days when movies like Life is Beautiful, All About My Mother, and Pan's Labyrinth were in this category?

As far as overall trends, it sounds like The King's Speech has the most overall nominations, and True Grit and Winter's Bone did better than expected. Social Network lost one in Andrew Garfield and Black Swan lost one in not being nominated for screenplay. But that's not ultimately what will decide the race. As I already wrote a few days ago (in depth), it's Social Network vs. The King's Speech, and the winner depends on the Academy's mood this year.

(For those curious, the other two nominations I missed was Javier Bardem for best actor instead of Ryan Gosling and Another Year for best screenplay instead of Black Swan.)

UPDATE: Just saw the list of nominees not announced on TV. For the most part, the movies in the big 10 continued to dominate in the smaller categories too. So just a few observations:

Many would say this was a better year for nonfiction films than fiction, so I was curious how documentary would go. As expected, presumed frontrunners Exit Through the Gift Shop and Inside Job were nominated, though other popular choice Waiting for Superman was not. Of the serious summer war docs, Restepo made it in but The Tillman Story did not. And haven't heard of the other two. Still rooting for Exit Through the Gift Shop. At least until I see Inside Job.

Also, Hereafter for visual effects? Really? I mean, I haven't seen it, but over Tron?

Pretty happy with all of the nominees in best score, and hoping Trent Reznor will soon be able to call himself Oscar winner.

Finally, the best song category is weak since there were no particularly good options this year, and they didn't even nominate the song from Waiting for Superman that I think was expected to win. But they did two things right: only nominate 4 songs since there clearly weren't five good ones (yet only three the year of The Wrestler, Wall-E, and Slumdog?), and keep Burlesque shut out.

Oscar Nod Predictions

The Oscar nominations will (finally) be announced first thing Tuesday morning, and this year I've decided to venture some predictions on the major categories because, you know, why not. But before I list the predictions, I wanted to write a little about how the big race has been shaping up so far this season, especially in light of The King's Speech's first major win at the Producers Guild Awards last night.

All season long, the Oscar bloggers have been calling this a two-horse race between The Social Network and The King's Speech, and, until the awards starting pouring in for Social Network, giving King the edge. And all season long, I've assumed this was some kind of strategy on the bloggers' part to ensure Social Network would be the eventual winner. After all, the frontrunner tends to stumble, so by talking up a lesser movie as the frontrunner over the obvious winner it would only help Social in the end.

But after last night, it's clear they weren't just being devious, and that all the reports of Academy members responding better to King weren't just too small sample size after all. Sure, common knowledge says that the Academy is old-fashioned and goes with the obvious, traditional movie that pulls the heartstrings over the hip, innovative, and better respected movie. But that hasn't been the case since, well, Crash infamously beat out Brokeback Mountain. The Departed, No Country for Old Men, The Departed, and even Slumdog Millionaire are unconventional Oscar movies for different reasons. Compared to them, Social Network actually makes a lot of sense for Oscar's mandate.

Because while conventional wisdom is that The King's Speech is the obvious Oscar movie while The Social Network is the challenging critic's choice, I'm not so sure I agree. First of all, the Oscars generally go for big movies. If Forrest Gump vs. Pulp Fiction is the prototypical "Oscars are traditional" example, then Forrest Gump is a whole lot more epic than King, which is just a nice little very British history lesson. Some have mocked the Oscars' recent push towards more challenging fare as turning them into the Indie Awards, but all of those recent winners are still bigger than King.

Second, the Academy wants its picks to seem "important." Even Crash pretended to have something relevant to say. The Social Network is no doubt the "important" movie of the year, attempting to define a generation and a technological movement. At the end of the day, what is King's Speech really about? One man overcoming a disability? A king who must inspire a nation to get through a war? Cause if it's that, I don't think the movie successfully proves the speech made much of a difference. I mean come on, how much power does a king in the 20th century really have? Sure it's nice to see him succeed, but beyond that, who really cares?

Finally, I think the whole emotional debate is not as cut and dry as many would believe. "The Social Network is heartless; The King's Speech is moving." I disagree. Maybe it's hard to sympathize with Mark Zuckerberg the character, a socially-challenged rich kid who turns against his friends to succeed. But Eduardo Saverin is an extremely sympathetic character, in a lot of ways the second protagonist, and I have trouble believing nobody felt for him at the end. And even Mark deserves a little pity as he pathetically refreshes his page, waiting to see if Erica accepted his friend request. While again, King's ending was nice, but I wasn't jumping out of my seat in applause. And if that one scene is what's supposed to make this the best movie of the year, I'm not buying it.

So I'm not saying The Social Network is a slam dunk for best picture, but I am saying The King's Speech would be the worst best picture pick in a long, long time, maybe even worse than Crash. Not because it's a bad movie. The fact that it is impossible to hate is the biggest reason it's considered so highly. But because it would be an entirely irrelevant choice. Best Picture is supposed to go to the movie to represent the year, that you come back to 20 years from now. 20 years from now, people will see The King's Speech and say "I have no idea what that is." The Queen and Frost/Nixon weren't considered frontrunners in their years, so I honestly can't understand why people think so highly of The King's Speech. Then again, everyone I know liked King a whole lot more than I did, so maybe I'm letting personal feelings get in the way of objective thinking. Either way, I don't get it.

Anyway, enough ranting, time for predictions. Each category is ranked in order of likelihood to be nominated.

Best Picture

The Social Network

The King's Speech

Inception

Black Swan

The Fighter

True Grit

Toy Story 3

The Kids Are All Right

127 Hours

Winter's Bone

Best Director

David Fincher, The Social Network

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Christopher Nolan, Inception

David O. Russell, The Fighter

Best Actor

Colin Firth, The King's Speech

James Franco, 127 Hours

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

Best Actress

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter

Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

Jeremy Renner, The Town

Best Supporting Actress

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Best Original Screenplay

The King's Speech

The Kids Are All Right

Inception

Black Swan

The Fighter

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter's Bone

127 Hours

Zandervision Movie Awards 2010

Following up on my top 10 list (posted yesterday), here are my picks for the best actors, directors, etc. of 2010. Rather than sticking to the standard winner/follow-up formula, this year in the major categories I'm going up to five choices, ranked in order, so this can double as what I would pick as the Oscar nominations (which are announced next week).

Best Actor

James Franco, 127 Hours

Runners-Up:

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island

Best Actress

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Runners-Up:

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Carey Mulligan, Never Let Me Go

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Emma Stone, Easy A

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter

Runners-Up:

John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

Andrew Garfield, The Social Network & Never Let Me Go

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer

Best Supporting Actress

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (yes, it's a lead role, but this is where she's campaigning)

Runners-Up:

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer

Barbara Hershey, Black Swan

Keira Knightley, Never Let Me Go

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Runners-Up:

David Fincher, The Social Network

Edgar Wright, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

Christopher Nolan, Inception

Best Original Screenplay

The Kids Are All Right

Runners-Up:

Inception

Black Swan

Easy A

The King's Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Social Network

Runners-Up:

Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

Toy Story 3

True Grit

127 Hours

TOP 10 MOVIES OF 2010

2010 is widely considered a weak year for movies. There were full months where there was almost nothing to see, and this year's awards season seems to have settled on its choices even earlier than usual. But I would argue that while 2010 wasn't a great movie year quantitatively, it still succeeded qualitatively - the few movies worth seeing hold up. In that spirit, here are the ten movies I thought held up the most.

1. The Social Network

At this point, to say that The Social Network is the best movie of 2010 is less an opinion than an objective fact. I hate making the same picks as everyone else and seriously considered going with another movie just to be different. But I'd be kidding myself. Nothing else even comes close. How often do you find a movie that has it all? Writing, directing, acting, score. Thought-provoking, timely, entertaining, funny. Filled with memorable characters and epic struggles. What began as "the Facebook movie" now really is the film for this generation, and will be what people are still watching twenty years from now.

2. Black Swan

Brilliant or tawdry, classic or cheap melodrama. You can guess where I sided in one of 2010's biggest movie debates. You might begin Black Swan thinking you're getting Darren Aronofsky's previous film The Wrestler transposed into the world of ballet. But quickly it becomes clear there's a lot more going on. The film could succeed as a backstage ballet movie alone without all the craziness in the final act, but that just wouldn't be as much fun. And with scenes like the opening ballet dream and that final "perfect" line, I left the theater sufficiently wowed.

3. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

Here's a movie that exemplified one of the biggest trends of 2010: great movies bombing at the box office. Sure, the demographic may have been somewhat narrow (guys and a few girls exactly my age who grew up on exactly these video games) and the stylization extreme, but I was in love before the studio banner had left the screen. While the video game allusions and unique visual style may have been what made the movie so original, it was the characters that caused Scott Pilgrim to level up. And the dialogue. And the music. Really just across the board awesome.

4. 127 Hours

When was the last time you were so physically affected by a movie you left the theater shaking? For me, it was 127 Hours. And I mean that in only the best possible way. Forget about "the scene" - they get you through that as quickly and painlessly as possible. No, what makes this so hard to watch is the claustrophobia - sitting there with him as he struggles to figure a way out. But if you let yourself get scared off due to a little discomfort, you're not only missing an amazing viewing experience, but also one of the slickest movies of the year. With the entire Slumdog team in place, the music, editing, and cinematography all create what has to be the best possible execution of an unlikely movie idea. Don't be a baby. You're just missing out.

5. The Kids Are All Right

You don't have to look at the abysmal Golden Globes slate to see this wasn't a year filled with great comedy options. Yet into the dregs of summer fell the exact type of intelligent, emotional comedy we've been waiting for. The premise sounds like something out of a sitcom: "What happens when a lesbian couple meets their kids' sperm donor? Wackiness ensues!" Yet The Kids Are All Right avoids that trap by making you care for all of the characters. It would be so easy to view Mark Ruffalo's character as a loser out to steal the family of Annette Bening's, or to see Bening's as uptight and better pushed out of the way. But the writing and acting never give you either option. And when things get serious toward the end, there have been so many laughs beforehand that it feels totally earned.

6. Inception

No doubt about it: Inception was the movie event of the year. It was the only movie that kept me up for a midnight screening and the only movie that should have. Nearly single-handedly saving an infamously bad summer season, Inception was a blockbuster in the best sense of the word. No, I don't understand all (or, let's be honest, even half) of what actually happened. But who cares? Scenes like Joseph Gordon-Levitt's zero-gravity shoot-out and the building caving in on itself are movie magic, pure and simple. Besides, when was it a bad thing for pop entertainment to make people use their brains?

7. Toy Story 3

With possibly the most successful track record in Hollywood - creatively and financially - Pixar could have easily rested on its laurels, especially in making a sequel nearly a decade after the previous entry in the series. Instead, Toy Story 3 ups the ante of the first two, growing up with its audience to become a more mature and meaningful movie. While we may primarily remember the movie for its final scene, the rest deserves credit for being a thoroughly entertaining prison break, including some amazing visuals. But while the toys are great, this one is really Andy's movie.

8. Never Let Me Go

Another movie that failed to get the attention it deserved, Never Let Me Go is one of those rare adaptations that can stay faithful to its popular source material while still feeling like its own complete entity. There' s something about the dreary English countryside and the uncomfortable looks of the teachers that hits more immediately onscreen than on the page. Maybe it's the stunning cinematography and melancholy score. Maybe it's the extremely likable trio of Carey Mulligan, Keira Knightley, and Andrew Garfield. But if you aren't moved by the emotional climax, you must be some kind of clone.

9. Shutter Island

Shutter Island got somewhat forgotten this year. Whether it was the early release date or the fact that Leonardo DiCaprio played basically the same character in Inception a few months later is anyone's guess, but I'd rank this close behind in terms of the year's coolest thrillers. It may have started slow and talky, but the suspense built and built as Leo was led on a surreal journey through a crazy looking prison ward and various possibilities of what was real. You definitely guessed some of the ending, but probably not all of it. And Martin Scorsese showed he knows his stuff when it comes to genre filmmaking.

10. True Grit

The Coen Brothers' most accessible and commercially successful film at first glance doesn't feel like a Coen Brothers movie at all. The story of a 14 year old girl who perseveres by pluck alone to save the day? Sounds like a Disney movie. But look closer and it's all there - the twisty, verbose dialogue that requires subtitles to fully understand; the quirky, oddball characters (what was up with Josh Brolin?); and the sudden violence. Still, the movie really belongs to Hailee Steinfeld, who breaks out in the biggest of ways as the quick-tongued and fearless heroine. Toss in a delightfully grumpy Jeff Bridges and this was the most fun movie of the Christmas season.

Honorable Mentions:

The Ghost Writer - Say what you will about Roman Polanski as a person, but this smart, intelligent thriller shows he still knows how to make damn good movies.

Easy A - The smartest, funniest high school-set satire since Mean Girls.

Greenberg - As unlikable as its protagonist may be, the movie makes coming back home decades later painfully relatable.

How to Train Your Dragon - Who would have thought a movie about dragons would feel so fresh and fun?

The Town - An old-school heist movie with a tinge of Good Will Hunting makes for a solid piece of Boston-set entertainment.

Now that I've made my picks, it's your turn. What am I leaving out? (And no, the exclusion of The King's Speech and The Fighter was not a mistake.) What am I overrating? And would you say 2010 ranks among the best or worst movie years? Leave a comment at the beep.

Premiere Week Redux: Yay or Nay

Happy New Year everyone! I could say I resolve to write more than one blog post a month, but, you know, no promises there. I can promise I will post my top 10 list soon....ish. Before the Oscars at least.

This week saw a bunch of new TV show premieres, of which I flagged four to check out. And since I clearly don't have time to write about what I'm watching, I've decided it's time to stop giving middling shows multiple chances before dropping them. I mean, I still have full seasons of Nikita and No Ordinary Family on DVR that I somehow believe I may someday watch.

But no more. From now on, each show is getting a yay or nay after one episode. So while I haven't gotten to Shameless yet (and my disinclination to do so may suggest which way I'm leaning there), here's how the new system has worked on three new shows that premiered this week.

Episodes

I was pretty much onboard with this one from the promo alone. Entourage lost its ability to successfully mock Hollywood seasons ago, so there was a void for some other show to take its place. And at least so far, Showtime's new comedy about an unsuccessful transition of a British hit to American schlock brings in the satire and the laughs, Turtle-free.

Now, sure, some of the jokes are a little obvious. And there is one glaring flaw to the pilot: they barely introduce major character Matt LeBlanc, who by most critical accounts is the funniest part of the show. But that just means the show's bound to get even better. And with a British-style limited run of seven episodes, there's less time to lose focus.

Verdict: YAY

Lights Out

One of the downsides of the success of shows like The Sopranos and Mad Men and Breaking Bad are that now cable channels think every one of their shows should be dark, slow, and downbeat (which, by the way, none of those three previous shows entirely are). And as well-done and cinematic as some of the shows to follow are, at a certain point enough is enough. I need some entertainment in my TV.

This also ties into the trend to make TV shows more like movies. And when you get something as big scale and unpredictable as Lost, great. But for some movies, even good ones, two hours is plenty. Loved 127 Hours, but wouldn't want it to be a second longer. Which brings me to Lights Out, a cinematically-minded show that's well-done enough but I just don't want to watch 13 hours of it.

In some ways, Lights Out is like if you took Breaking Bad and replaced drugs with boxing. It's similarly about a guy with financial troubles forced to do something his family would disapprove of in order to provide for them. But the similarities end there. There's no humor, no immediate stand-out characters, and overall it's just kind of a bummer.

Now, I'm also not a fan of The Fighter (though fully support Christian Bale's upcoming Oscar win), so maybe I'm just not into boxing things. Or at least boxers. Just as Mark Wahlberg's character was the least interesting thing about the movie, here too I don't feel like the main guy is strong enough or interesting enough to anchor the show. And movies have so mined this kind of story before there just may not be too much new to say.

I dropped Terriers after one episode too, and weeks later critics were saying it was the best show on TV. So that could totally happen again. But Terriers was still a lot more fun. I'm not in any way saying Lights Out is a bad show or that you shouldn't watch it. But I've got dark cable drama fatigue, and this just isn't good enough to make the cut.

Verdict: NAY

The Cape

I won't write too much about NBC's latest attempt to get a superhero show going, since that would be somewhat unfair when I only made it a half hour into the two hour pilot. I didn't get to Summer Glau's introduction or even to where the main guy officially becomes "The Cape." But I still maintain that a half hour was plenty of time to label this craptacular.

To keep it brief, I'll just sketch out the reasons I labeled this with the c word. First off, ridiculously serious tone. This is a superhero show in the absolute most conventional sense. Music that rips off other superhero movies, dialogue that's ripped from a comic book; the only humor here is unintentional (though there's plenty of that). Next, bland main character. It may not help that he again looks identical to Mr. Schu from Glee and the main guy on Rubicon, but since he has less personality than either of them that can't be blamed. And again, the dialogue is just atrocious.

Verdict: NAY