Oscar Nod Predictions

The Oscar nominations will (finally) be announced first thing Tuesday morning, and this year I've decided to venture some predictions on the major categories because, you know, why not. But before I list the predictions, I wanted to write a little about how the big race has been shaping up so far this season, especially in light of The King's Speech's first major win at the Producers Guild Awards last night.

All season long, the Oscar bloggers have been calling this a two-horse race between The Social Network and The King's Speech, and, until the awards starting pouring in for Social Network, giving King the edge. And all season long, I've assumed this was some kind of strategy on the bloggers' part to ensure Social Network would be the eventual winner. After all, the frontrunner tends to stumble, so by talking up a lesser movie as the frontrunner over the obvious winner it would only help Social in the end.

But after last night, it's clear they weren't just being devious, and that all the reports of Academy members responding better to King weren't just too small sample size after all. Sure, common knowledge says that the Academy is old-fashioned and goes with the obvious, traditional movie that pulls the heartstrings over the hip, innovative, and better respected movie. But that hasn't been the case since, well, Crash infamously beat out Brokeback Mountain. The Departed, No Country for Old Men, The Departed, and even Slumdog Millionaire are unconventional Oscar movies for different reasons. Compared to them, Social Network actually makes a lot of sense for Oscar's mandate.

Because while conventional wisdom is that The King's Speech is the obvious Oscar movie while The Social Network is the challenging critic's choice, I'm not so sure I agree. First of all, the Oscars generally go for big movies. If Forrest Gump vs. Pulp Fiction is the prototypical "Oscars are traditional" example, then Forrest Gump is a whole lot more epic than King, which is just a nice little very British history lesson. Some have mocked the Oscars' recent push towards more challenging fare as turning them into the Indie Awards, but all of those recent winners are still bigger than King.

Second, the Academy wants its picks to seem "important." Even Crash pretended to have something relevant to say. The Social Network is no doubt the "important" movie of the year, attempting to define a generation and a technological movement. At the end of the day, what is King's Speech really about? One man overcoming a disability? A king who must inspire a nation to get through a war? Cause if it's that, I don't think the movie successfully proves the speech made much of a difference. I mean come on, how much power does a king in the 20th century really have? Sure it's nice to see him succeed, but beyond that, who really cares?

Finally, I think the whole emotional debate is not as cut and dry as many would believe. "The Social Network is heartless; The King's Speech is moving." I disagree. Maybe it's hard to sympathize with Mark Zuckerberg the character, a socially-challenged rich kid who turns against his friends to succeed. But Eduardo Saverin is an extremely sympathetic character, in a lot of ways the second protagonist, and I have trouble believing nobody felt for him at the end. And even Mark deserves a little pity as he pathetically refreshes his page, waiting to see if Erica accepted his friend request. While again, King's ending was nice, but I wasn't jumping out of my seat in applause. And if that one scene is what's supposed to make this the best movie of the year, I'm not buying it.

So I'm not saying The Social Network is a slam dunk for best picture, but I am saying The King's Speech would be the worst best picture pick in a long, long time, maybe even worse than Crash. Not because it's a bad movie. The fact that it is impossible to hate is the biggest reason it's considered so highly. But because it would be an entirely irrelevant choice. Best Picture is supposed to go to the movie to represent the year, that you come back to 20 years from now. 20 years from now, people will see The King's Speech and say "I have no idea what that is." The Queen and Frost/Nixon weren't considered frontrunners in their years, so I honestly can't understand why people think so highly of The King's Speech. Then again, everyone I know liked King a whole lot more than I did, so maybe I'm letting personal feelings get in the way of objective thinking. Either way, I don't get it.

Anyway, enough ranting, time for predictions. Each category is ranked in order of likelihood to be nominated.

Best Picture

The Social Network

The King's Speech

Inception

Black Swan

The Fighter

True Grit

Toy Story 3

The Kids Are All Right

127 Hours

Winter's Bone

Best Director

David Fincher, The Social Network

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Christopher Nolan, Inception

David O. Russell, The Fighter

Best Actor

Colin Firth, The King's Speech

James Franco, 127 Hours

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

Best Actress

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter

Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

Jeremy Renner, The Town

Best Supporting Actress

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Best Original Screenplay

The King's Speech

The Kids Are All Right

Inception

Black Swan

The Fighter

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter's Bone

127 Hours