Election Predictions

With a day before the election and many of the final polls released, I've made my own predictions in the map above. This is admittedly a somewhat optimistic prediction, as Florida and Ohio could very easily turn for McCain. On the other hand, I gave swing states like North Carolina and Missouri to McCain. But regardless of how far Obama seems to be ahead or how un-swingy your state is, make sure to vote tomorrow. This is far from a done deal, and Obama needs everyone's votes to make this happen. None of us wants this to be yet another election where the pundits talk of the failure of the youth vote. So do the right thing and Barack the vote tomorrow.

Now a look at the map state-by-state, starting with the most important.

Pennsylvania

It's looking like Pennsylvania will be this year's Ohio/Florida as the state that decides it all. With polls showing Obama well ahead in Pennsylvania for months now, this hardly seems like the biggest swing state. But there's 2 big reasons why this is the state to watch:

1. Polls have tightened enough that Obama's lead has gone from 14% to 7%.
2. It is one of only two plausible scenarios in which McCain can win.

With 21 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is a must-win state for McCain, and has the potential to shift the electoral tide. Pennsylvania hasn't voted Republican since 1988, but McCain has put all of his resources into it in the last few weeks. 7% is still a lot to overcome in a single day, but this is still a worrisome state for Obama supporters. Still, a McCain win in Pennsylvania is not a death knell for Obama. There are three scenarios in which Obama can lose Pennsylvania but win the election:

1. Win Ohio.
2. Win Florida.
3. Win Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada.

So while Pennsylvania has started to worry me recently, I still believe it will pull through for Obama just as it did for Kerry and Gore despite far scarier polling in the days leading up to the election. But it will still be "too close to call" for most of the night.

Virginia and Colorado

Now on to two states Bush won in 2004 that seem like they're heading for Obama this time around. If Obama wins all Kerry states + Iowa and New Mexico (a safe assumption barring the analysis above), he only needs one of these states to clinch the presidency. But securing all other Bush states and both of these is McCain's second most plausible way of winning the election, making these the next most important states to watch.

Virginia hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964. But with high turn-out among black voters, excitement among college students, and Democrats moving into Northern Virginia (or the Fake Virginia, as Nancy Pfotenhauer would say), Virginia is looking more and more like a safe bet for Obama. But with some tightening in the polls that have brought Obama from +7% to +4%, this seems even less like a done deal than Pennsylvania. We won't know the results when polls close at 7, but I still think it'll be called for Obama before the end of the night.

Like Virginia, Colorado is a red state on the verge of turning blue, with polls currently at +5% Obama. Those have tightened from the +8% they were last week, but even the McCain campaign was admitting a few weeks ago that Colorado is probably out of its reach. If Obama can get Colorado, he just needs to hold on to Pennsylvania and New Hampshire for the win.

Ohio and Florida

As the key battleground states of 2004 and 2000, respectively, this time around their importance will be decided by other states. These are easily two of the closest races, with polls showing a statistical tie that slightly favors Obama. But while these are both must-win states for McCain, Obama only needs one if he loses Pennsylvania or Colorado and Virginia. I have optimistically followed the polls to suggest an Obama victory in both of these states. But as Ohio is polling slightly more for Obama than Florida, I could easily see them splitting candidates or both going for McCain. Neither state is likely to be called before midnight, and I'm hoping by that point the results won't matter.

Nevada and New Hampshire

These states are small but potentially crucial with 5 and 4 electoral votes, respectively. Nevada voted for Bush in 2004, New Hampshire voted for Kerry. Both are polling well ahead for Obama (+6% and +10%). But despite their size, they can make a difference. If Obama loses Pennsylvania, Nevada could still help him win the election. If he loses Colorado and Virginia (and all other swing states), Nevada could create an electoral tie. Like Colorado and New Mexico, it seems secure for Obama, but it is still one to watch.

New Hampshire, at 10% ahead for Obama, does not seem like much of a swing state. But since Obama was leading 11% in primary polls before losing to Hilary Clinton, NH polls clearly don't tell the whole truth. As "live free or die" followers, NH likes to buck conventions, and a poll saying they will vote for Obama may be the best way to get them to support McCain. Had Gore won NH in 2000, he would have been our president. It should ultimately go Obama, but I expect it to be a lot closer than the polls say.

North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana

These three states are all serious red states that at various points have shown either a statistical tie or a slight Obama lead. Indiana has shifted for McCain recently, but North Carolina and Missouri are both certainly in play. In the event of an Obama landslide, all three could easily shift blue. But I bet in this case they'll all drop back for McCain.

Iowa and New Mexico

Both states voted for Bush in 2004, but it's hard to see either one going for McCain this time around. Iowa was the state that set Obama on the path to the nomination, and polls have shown Obama up around 14% ever since. New Mexico is a bit closer, but still shows an Obama lead of around 7%, which has steadily grown in the past few weeks. It seems highly unlikely either would switch back at the last minute.

And the rest...

Of course, other states could potentially surprise on election night. West Virginia, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and even McCain's home state of Arizona show weak leads that could be overturned in an Obama surge. On the other side, Minnesota and Wisconsin have been swing states in the past and polls have dropped enough that they could be again.

But at the end of the day, I still think it will come down to Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Colorado, and after a long night of excitement we will find out Barack Obama is our next president. I've given plenty of reasons above for why my map may not come to be, but many of the predictions on CNN show an even bigger Obama win. At this point, there's only two things we can do: Wait and see what happens, and most importantly, VOTE! As good as it's looking, the election is not over yet. So do your part and make Barack Obama the next president of the United States.