Final(ish) Oscar Predictions

After a whole lot of build-up, the Oscars finally air this Sunday, and to be honest, I've kind of stopped caring. Once it became clear The King's Speech was the heavy favorite to win I realized there's no point in paying attention to an awards ceremony willing to bestow its highest honor on such an irrelevant pick. Nevertheless, here are my current picks and predictions for what will happen on Sunday.

Best Picture

Will Win: The Social Network

Should Win: The Social Network

Will Actually Win: The King's Speech

This is the category I've struggled with the most, and I'll probably change my mind five times before I finish this post. Because in truth, The King's Speech will almost certainly win. It won all 3 major guilds and is the more "traditional" pick. But at the end of the day, I still don't believe it. The King's Speech has been sitting in the frontrunner seat for about a month now, and that feels like enough time for the backlash to kick in. And The Social Network's win at the editing guild means there's reason to hold out hope, as silly as that may sound. I'm almost certainly wrong on this, but I think it's closer than people think, and I'd rather bet on what I'm rooting for than on a horrible mistake.

Best Director

Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network

Should Win: David Fincher, The Social Network

Biggest Competition: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Despite the win at the Directors Guild, it would take a clean sweep for Tom Hooper to repeat at the Oscars. The Oscars like to reward auteurs, not newbies. So this feels like a far safer bet for Social Network than Best Picture does.

Best Actor

Will Win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Should Win: James Franco, 127 Hours

Biggest Competition: James Franco, 127 Hours

There's not really any scenario in which Colin Firth doesn't win. Many think he's overdue from A Single Man last year and his movie has the most nominations total. But how cool would it be if the Oscar host won an award?

Best Actress

Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Biggest Competition: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Annette Bening's lost a lot of hype since the summer, and Black Swan just crossed the $100 million mark. Since Natalie Portman worked crazy hard for the part, expect her to be equally rewarded here.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Should Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Biggest Competition: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

If Geoffrey Rush wins this award, you KNOW The King's Speech is taking Best Picture. Cause otherwise this is clear cut win for Bale.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Biggest Competition: The ladies of The Fighter

Melissa Leo was considered the favorite here, but the tides have turned away from her as of late. Since she's also got to fight against Amy Adams (who I personally think gave a stronger performance), I give the edge to the newbie, who showed what a true breakout debut can be.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: The King's Speech

Should Win: The Kids Are All Right

Biggest Competition: Inception

With Social Network comfortably in adapted, and the writer getting lots of publicity for his decades-long quest to get this movie made, this is a no-brainer.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: The Social Network

Should Win: The Social Network

Biggest Competition: True Grit

Since the screenplay is probably the best thing about it, and with The King's Speech comfortably in original, this is a no-brainer.

I'll keep it to straight predictions for the rest:

Best Documentary Feature

Inside Job

Best Animated Feature

Toy Story 3

Best Foreign Language Film

In a Better World

Best Film Editing

The Social Network

Best Cinematography

True Grit

Best Original Score

The Social Network

Best Original Song

"If I Rise" - 127 Hours

Best Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland

Best Visual Effects

Inception

Best Sound Mixing

Inception

Best Sound Editing

Inception

Best Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland

Best Makeup

The Wolfman

Best Animated Short

Day & Night

Best Live Action Short

Na Wewe

Best Documentary Short

Strangers No More

Oscar Nod Predictions

The Oscar nominations will (finally) be announced first thing Tuesday morning, and this year I've decided to venture some predictions on the major categories because, you know, why not. But before I list the predictions, I wanted to write a little about how the big race has been shaping up so far this season, especially in light of The King's Speech's first major win at the Producers Guild Awards last night.

All season long, the Oscar bloggers have been calling this a two-horse race between The Social Network and The King's Speech, and, until the awards starting pouring in for Social Network, giving King the edge. And all season long, I've assumed this was some kind of strategy on the bloggers' part to ensure Social Network would be the eventual winner. After all, the frontrunner tends to stumble, so by talking up a lesser movie as the frontrunner over the obvious winner it would only help Social in the end.

But after last night, it's clear they weren't just being devious, and that all the reports of Academy members responding better to King weren't just too small sample size after all. Sure, common knowledge says that the Academy is old-fashioned and goes with the obvious, traditional movie that pulls the heartstrings over the hip, innovative, and better respected movie. But that hasn't been the case since, well, Crash infamously beat out Brokeback Mountain. The Departed, No Country for Old Men, The Departed, and even Slumdog Millionaire are unconventional Oscar movies for different reasons. Compared to them, Social Network actually makes a lot of sense for Oscar's mandate.

Because while conventional wisdom is that The King's Speech is the obvious Oscar movie while The Social Network is the challenging critic's choice, I'm not so sure I agree. First of all, the Oscars generally go for big movies. If Forrest Gump vs. Pulp Fiction is the prototypical "Oscars are traditional" example, then Forrest Gump is a whole lot more epic than King, which is just a nice little very British history lesson. Some have mocked the Oscars' recent push towards more challenging fare as turning them into the Indie Awards, but all of those recent winners are still bigger than King.

Second, the Academy wants its picks to seem "important." Even Crash pretended to have something relevant to say. The Social Network is no doubt the "important" movie of the year, attempting to define a generation and a technological movement. At the end of the day, what is King's Speech really about? One man overcoming a disability? A king who must inspire a nation to get through a war? Cause if it's that, I don't think the movie successfully proves the speech made much of a difference. I mean come on, how much power does a king in the 20th century really have? Sure it's nice to see him succeed, but beyond that, who really cares?

Finally, I think the whole emotional debate is not as cut and dry as many would believe. "The Social Network is heartless; The King's Speech is moving." I disagree. Maybe it's hard to sympathize with Mark Zuckerberg the character, a socially-challenged rich kid who turns against his friends to succeed. But Eduardo Saverin is an extremely sympathetic character, in a lot of ways the second protagonist, and I have trouble believing nobody felt for him at the end. And even Mark deserves a little pity as he pathetically refreshes his page, waiting to see if Erica accepted his friend request. While again, King's ending was nice, but I wasn't jumping out of my seat in applause. And if that one scene is what's supposed to make this the best movie of the year, I'm not buying it.

So I'm not saying The Social Network is a slam dunk for best picture, but I am saying The King's Speech would be the worst best picture pick in a long, long time, maybe even worse than Crash. Not because it's a bad movie. The fact that it is impossible to hate is the biggest reason it's considered so highly. But because it would be an entirely irrelevant choice. Best Picture is supposed to go to the movie to represent the year, that you come back to 20 years from now. 20 years from now, people will see The King's Speech and say "I have no idea what that is." The Queen and Frost/Nixon weren't considered frontrunners in their years, so I honestly can't understand why people think so highly of The King's Speech. Then again, everyone I know liked King a whole lot more than I did, so maybe I'm letting personal feelings get in the way of objective thinking. Either way, I don't get it.

Anyway, enough ranting, time for predictions. Each category is ranked in order of likelihood to be nominated.

Best Picture

The Social Network

The King's Speech

Inception

Black Swan

The Fighter

True Grit

Toy Story 3

The Kids Are All Right

127 Hours

Winter's Bone

Best Director

David Fincher, The Social Network

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Christopher Nolan, Inception

David O. Russell, The Fighter

Best Actor

Colin Firth, The King's Speech

James Franco, 127 Hours

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

Best Actress

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter

Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

Jeremy Renner, The Town

Best Supporting Actress

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Best Original Screenplay

The King's Speech

The Kids Are All Right

Inception

Black Swan

The Fighter

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter's Bone

127 Hours

Last Minute Emmy Predictions

Emmys are tonight, and with a ton of fresh blood in the field it's actually tough to predict this year's crop. Will Emmys keep to their infamous tradition of rewarding the same old same old? Or will they recognize one of the strongest crops of new shows since, well, the year Lost premiered? Here are my (probably very wrong) guesses:

Best Drama

Will Win: Lost (but realistically probably Mad Men)

Should Win: Lost or Dexter

Dark Horse: Pretty much anything but True Blood

Snubbed: Damages

This is a really tough category to call. Do they reward Lost for finishing strong despite a controversial ending (like they did with The Sopranos)? Do they recognize Dexter's best year? Do they reward The Good Wife for being a break-out freshman and a traditional network drama? Do they side with the critics in calling Breaking Bad the top show? Or do they let Mad Men go three for three? Seeing as it's the Emmys, it will probably be Mad Men, but for some reason I'm going with Lost.

Best Comedy

Will Win: Modern Family

Should Win: Modern Family or Glee

Dark Horse: Glee

Snubbed: Party Down

This one's a little easier. Despite 30 Rock winning in all of its three previous years, I think everyone knows this one's really between the two break-out new shows: Glee or Modern Family. Glee's won most of the awards for being the phenomenon of the year, and Emmys have occasionally gone that route in the past (like giving Lost a win in its first year). But Modern Family's so much more Emmy-friendly (and consistent) that I bet it takes the win.

Best Actor, Drama

Will Win: Michael C. Hall, Dexter

Should Win: Michael C. Hall, Dexter

Dark Horse: Bryan Cranston, Hugh Laurie, Jon Hamm

Snubbed: Timothy Olyphant, Justified

Another really tough category. Bryan Cranston won the past two years and Breaking Bad fans say this season's been his best yet, so he's definitely the favorite. But Michael C. Hall's won other awards this year for his best year yet. Plus he's shockingly never won here before. But neither have Hugh Laurie and Jon Hamm, both of whom had very strong submissions. Could go any of the four ways.

Best Actress, Drama

Will Win: Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife

Should Win: Glenn Close, Damages

Dark Horse: January Jones, Mad Men

Julianna Margulies has won everything else so far, and I think it's a safe bet she'll take this one too.

Best Supporting Actor, Drama

Will Win: Michael Emerson, Lost

Should Win: Terry O'Quinn, Lost

Dark Horse: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

Snubbed: Campbell Scott, Damages

There is a very strong chance the two Losties (both of whom have already won) will cancel each other out, and Aaron Paul will win for what I'm told is a fantastic performance. But here's my thoughts: Michael Emerson has the better episode submission, since Dr. Linus is one of the best of the season. But Terry O'Quinn gave the better season-long performance, since he had to play polar opposites in the Man in Black and Sideways Locke. And there's always the chance Andre Braugher takes it instead.

Best Supporting Actress, Drama

Will Win: Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

Should Win: Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

Dark Horse: Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife

Snubbed: Jennifer Carpenter, Dexter

Joan may have been woefully underused last year on Mad Men, but the episode she submitted is a knockout, plus everyone loves her. Though Archie Panjabi is just as much of a scene-stealer on The Good Wife, so the Emmys' clear love for the show could carry over to her. I also wouldn't count out Elisabeth Moss or Christine Baranski.

Best Actor, Comedy

Will Win: Tony Shalhoub, Monk

Should Win: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

Dark Horse: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Snubbed: Jay Harrington, Better Off Ted

Tony Shalhoub has won this category so many times that I don't think the rest of the world's disdain will keep Emmy voters from giving it to him one final time. Though in recent years they've loved Alec Baldwin even more. Most people are rooting for Jim Parsons though, so maybe that will pay off?

Best Actress, Comedy

Will Win: Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie

Should Win: Tina Fey, 30 Rock

Dark Horse: Toni Collette, United States of Tara

Snubbed: Portia de Rossi, Better Off Ted

Emmy voters love Edie Falco, so expect her to be rewarded for making them forget about Carmela. But they also love Toni Collette playing multiple personalities. And they love Tina Fey. But Edie Falco will ultimately win this.

Best Supporting Actor, Comedy

Will Win: Ty Burrell, Modern Family

Should Win: Ty Burrell, Modern Family

Dark Horse: Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

Snubbed: Ed O'Neill, Modern Family

As long as this isn't a repeat for Jon Cryer, I'm happy with anybody who wins here. NPH absolutely deserves this award, but deserved it more the past 4 years. Eric Stonestreet would be the obvious Emmy pick, but Ty Burrell is really the stand-out. And while Chris Colfer's nomination was a pleasant surprise, he's probably too young and too dramatic a role to take it. But you never know.

Best Supporting Actress, Comedy

Will Win: Jane Lynch, Glee

Should Win: Jane Lynch, Glee

Dark Horse: Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

Snubbed: Lizzy Caplan, Party Down

This seems like one of the biggest no-brainers of the night, though Sofia Vergara is also hilarious. But how can they keep Sue Sylvester from adding another trophy to her case?

Oscar Predictions

As you may have heard, the Academy Awards are this Sunday night. So with a few days to go, I'm going on the record with my predictions. Feel free to follow me on your Oscar pools, but remember that I'm usually very wrong.

Best Picture

Will Win: The Hurt Locker

Top Competitor: Avatar

Should Win: Up in the Air

This one's boiled down to The Hurt Locker vs. Avatar, if perhaps just for the David vs. Goliath ring to it. I'm rooting for Up in the Air mostly to be a contrarian, but Inglourious Basterds is the dark horse most likely to slip in. Still, while it could go in any direction, I'm feeling the Hurt Locker love right now.

Best Director

Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

Top Competitor: James Cameron, Avatar

Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

There's a strong argument that picture and director will split between Hurt Locker and Avatar, and that the Academy may want to reward Cameron for his decade of work and serious innovations. I still expect Bigelow to be the first female director to win.

Best Actor

Will Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Top Competitor: Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Should Win: Jeff Bridges or Jeremy Renner

Jeff Bridges is a very safe bet here, but if they REALLY love Hurt Locker Renner could surprise for his breakout role.

Best Actress

Will Win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Top Competitor: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Should Win: Carey Mulligan, An Education

If those of us who refuse to see The Blind Side can't understand how Bullock was even nominated, remember this: Actors vote for actors, and actors LOVE her. Gabby Sidibe might actually be more likely to surprise than Streep.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Top Competitor: Um.....

Should Win: Christoph Waltz

This contest ended months ago.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Mo'nique, Precious

Top Competitor: Someone from Up in the Air?

Should Win: Mo'nique

Again, not really much of a contest here.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Inglourious Basterds

Top Competitor: The Hurt Locker

Should Win: Inglourious Basterds

The Hurt Locker may very well win here, but I'm still betting on Tarantino for the win.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Up in the Air

Top Competitor: An Education

Should Win: Up in the Air

I think Up in the Air's super polished script is a safe bet, but I guess Precious or An Education could surprise.

Best Animated Film

Will Win: Up

Top Competitor: Um...

Should Win: Up

Another no-brainer.

Best Foreign Language Film

Will Win: A Prophet

Top Competitor: El Secreto de los Ojos

Should Win: Haven't seen any of them

The White Ribbon's the most well-known of the lot, but the foreign language branch of the Academy doesn't care about that. I hear Secreto is the most conventional and will hence probably win, but let's compromise on A Prophet.

Best Score

Will Win: Up

Top Competitor: Avatar

Should Win: Up

Up's music was great, therefore it will win.

Best Song

Will Win: "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart

Top Competitor: "Down in New Orleans" from Princess and the Frog

Should Win: "The Weary Kind"

It's the only song nominated that really deserves to be there, so it should be a clear victory.

Best Documentary

Will Win: The Cove

Top Competitor: Food, Inc.

Should Win: Food, Inc.

The Cove has won every single doc award for the year, so that will probably continue. But Fooc, Inc. was really really good.

Best Art Direction

Will Win: Avatar

Top Competitor: The Young Victoria

Should Win: Avatar

I don't really know what I'm talking about here, but I refuse to predict Nine for any victories. Seems like a good place for Avatar to take an award, but they do love period pieces in these categories...

Best Cinematography

Will Win: The Hurt Locker

Top Competitor: Avatar

Should Win: The Hurt Locker

Again, Inglourious Basterds has a real shot, but I see it being between the two top-nominated movies. And here I think conventional filmmaking will win out.

Best Costumes

Will Win: The Young Victoria

Top Competitor: Bright Star

Should Win: I haven't even seen most of these movies, and for good reason.

I clearly have no idea what I'm talking about here, but period pieces always win here.

Best Makeup

Will Win: Star Trek

Top Competitor: The Young Victoria

Should Win: Star Trek

Did you recognize Eric Bana? Yeah, I didn't think so.

Best Film Editing

Will Win: The Hurt Locker

Top Competitor: Avatar

Should Win: The Hurt Locker

Tends to go to the movie with the most noticeable editing, so again, that's Hurt Locker.

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Avatar

Top Competitor: District 9

Should Win: Avatar

Which of these movies reinvented cinema? Oh, right, that one.

Best Sound Editing

Will Win: Avatar

Top Competitor: The Hurt Locker

Should Win: Avatar

Avatar should be sweeping these tech categories.

Best Sound Mixing

Will Win: Avatar

Top Competitor: The Hurt Locker

Should Win: Avatar

May be a "different" category, but same deal.

Best Documentary Short

Will Win: The Last Truck: Closing of a GE Plant

Top Competitor: China's Natural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province

I haven't seen nor read anything about these, so I'm basing my judgement on title alone. But the GE Plant one sounds timely, and the China one sounds depressing, so there you go.

Best Live Action Short

Will Win: The New Tenants

Top Competitor: Kavi

I don't really know much about this category, but I heard "Tenants" is really funny, and that "Kavi" is the serious one.

Best Animated Short

Will Win: A Matter of Loaf or Death

Top Competitor: Logorama

Wallace and Gromit won feature animated film in its year (I think), so I bet it takes short as well. Though Logorama is also a cool name.

I reserve the right to change my mind multiple times in the next few days, especially in those last three categories. Good luck with your Oscar pools, and we'll discuss more on Sunday!

Oscar Nomination Predictions

On Tuesday, early in the morning, the Oscar nods will finally be announced, following what feels like 500 other award ceremonies. We'll get to see if ten nominees for best picture leads to some wacky mainstream picks, or just an expansion of typical Academy fare. So, while I fully admit to letting my personal preferences get in the way of serious conjecture, here are my predictions for how the top races will look, from most likely to least:

Best Picture

Avatar

The Hurt Locker

Up in the Air

Inglourious Basterds

Precious

Up

An Education

District 9

A Serious Man

(500) Days of Summer

I'm probably the only one thinking Summer could be nominated, but I figure there's got to be one out of left field pick, and Invictus feels like the most vulnerable of the expected nominees. That said, it's way more likely to be A Serious Man falling out and The Blind Side or Star Trek coming in.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

James Cameron, Avatar

Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Neil Blomkamp, District 9

The first four are pretty much locks, so it's only the last slot that may surprise. It could go to Lee Daniels to recognize what the best picture nominees would have been in a normal year, or to Clint Eastwood for who knows why. But I think they'll want to recognize Blomkamp.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

George Clooney, Up in the Air

Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Colin Firth, A Single Man

I feel pretty safe predicting these five, since the biggest challenger is Viggo Mortenson and I'm just not seeing it for The Road.

Best Actress

Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Carey Mulligan, An Education

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds

Again, the top four here are pretty much locks, and most expect Helen Mirren to take the fifth slot. But since I don't think many voters will watch The Last Station, general support for Inglourious Basterds could sneak Melanie Laurent in (as much as I'm tempted to put Zoe Saldana in slot #5).

Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Alfred Molina, An Education

Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker

While Christoph Waltz has the win in the bag, I'm less sure who will be joining him among the nominees. I can't see Matt Damon making it in since he pretty much just did an accent and played rugby, and I'm going against Christopher Plummer in The Last Station for the same reason as Helen Mirren. Since Christian McKay may suffer the same problem of people not seeing his movie, maybe the recent guild love will carry over for Hurt Locker into a supporting actor nomination.

Best Supporting Actress

Mo'nique, Precious

Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

Julianne Moore, A Single Man

Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds

I refuse to predict Nine for any major nominations, and not having seen The Messenger I'm doubting Samantha Morton too. So unless they stick Melanie Laurent in supporting actress (which they quite possibly will), I'll go with Diane Kruger.

Best Original Screenplay

Inglourious Basterds

The Hurt Locker

Up

(500) Days of Summer

A Serious Man

If the Academy goes crazy for Avatar, I suppose it could steal one of these slots (as could The Hangover), but I'm sticking with the five that deserve it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Up in the Air

An Education

Precious

District 9

Fantastic Mr. Fox

This is one of the more competitive categories, as I could totally see Julie & Julia, The Blind Side, or Invictus sneaking in, but I'll play it safe here.

Looking Ahead to the Oscars

Tomorrow Entertainment Weekly will give its predictions for Oscar nominations. Although they won't be announced until February, ten nominees for best picture means even more movies to see, and more time needed to catch up. So I figured now was as good a time as any to suggest what I think the ten nominees will be (while acknowledging a lot can change in a month).

Right now it's looking like there's four movies competing for the win, four movies that look pretty safe for the nomination, and two open slots with little to fill them. I think we can all agree this was a bad year to expand to ten nominees, but it does make it a bit less predictable.

Competing for the Win:

1. Up in the Air

The probable best picture winner. It's timely, it's got top-notch acting, writing, and directing (all of which will likely be nominated), and it's got that old Best Picture feel. It would have less of a chance in a stronger year, but for 2009 it feels like a champ.

2. Avatar

With super strong reviews and huge box office, Avatar will get people to watch the Oscars and stands a legit chance of winning. The Academy's general bias against genre movies combined with some weaknesses in the story may keep this from ultimately winning, but it's certainly a top contender.

3. The Hurt Locker

This may very well be the best movie of the year, and with more viewers it might stand a chance for Best Picture too. But having made only $12 million, a best picture win would be too big an insult to the moviegoing public. Still, a directing win for Kathryn Bigelow seems likely, and it should still manage nominations for picture, actor, and writing, among others.

4. Precious

Once a top contender, Precious has lost a lot of buzz and box office since its limited release surge into theaters. And having just seen it, I don't think people want to vote for the "feel miserable" movie during a recession. Still, Mo'Nique is the probable best supporting actress winner and Gabourey Sidibe should be nominated for best actress.

Likely to be Nominated:

5. Inglourious Basterds

People really love this movie, enough so that despite all its oddities it could probably even make a list of 5. I suppose residual embarrassment over Pulp Fiction's loss could put this into the front category, but I think this will have to stick with nominations for picture, directing, and writing.

6. Up

Anti-animation bias may have kept Wall-E out of the top 5, but with ten nominees Up should be safe.

7. Invictus

I haven't seen it, but it seems like the kind of populist feel-good movie people nominate and forget about. Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon will likely score nods as well.

8. An Education

I thought the problem here would be that people liked it but didn't love it, hence leaving it vulnerable. But since it's actually dividing most of the people I know who have seen it, it may not even be able to count on the "liked it" vote. Still, Carey Mulligan for actress and Nick Hornby for screenplay seem more than safe.

The two open spots:

Originally, these spots would have gone to Nine and The Lovely Bones. But since Nine is inarguably awful, I can't imagine it getting on here unless people vote for it without watching it (which, to be honest, seems plausible). And The Lovely Bones is supposedly so bad they pushed the release date to mid-January. So what's that leave?

9. A Serious Man

This has been seriously dividing audiences, but since fans tend to be really passionate about it, enough #1-3 votes seem likely to give it slot #9.

Beyond that I'm less sure. The last slot could go to some other seriously Oscar-y movie like A Single Man, Crazy Heart, or The Messenger, but my bet is it goes to something a little more commercial. Which seems most likely?

Star Trek or District 9

Both have been mentioned as possible nominees, and both have their serious fanbases. But with Avatar likely to get most of the sci-fi love, and having to compete with each other as well, I'm skeptical either makes it through.

Julie and Julia or It's Complicated

Pretty sure It's Complicated's bad reviews cancel it out, but Julie and Julia seems like a legitimate choice, even if it may be too lightweight for the Oscars.

The Hangover

If people vote for what they love, maybe a group of younger voters could push this through, though I highly doubt it.

Where the Wild Things Are or Fantastic Mr. Fox

Both are huge critics' choices, but the former wasn't equally loved by the public, and the latter will fall into the same anti-animation bias that Up is already trying to overcome.

So what do I think will take the last slot?

10. (500) Days of Summer

Nobody's taking it too seriously as a contender, but in a weak year with ten slots to fill, why not? It mixes the comedy and drama enough that it doesn't feel lightweight, is creative enough with the storytelling to feel original, and those that like it love it.

So those are my picks. What am I leaving out? What am I overvaluing? Let me know in the comments.

Emmy Predictions

In case you forgot, the Emmy Awards are tomorrow (Sunday) night, and with Neil Patrick Harris hosting it may actually be worth watching, even if the awards are less than exciting. If you're on the fence, maybe this will help make up your mind: Dr. Horrible musical number. Yeah. That's what I thought. In the meantime, here are my predictions for how the awards part will go down. As predictable as they seem, I'm sure I'll still miss most. You should really never trust me on these things.

BEST DRAMA

Will Win: Mad Men

Should Win: Mad Men

Could Win: Breaking Bad?

Mad Men's second year was as good and arguably better than its first. It's hard to imagine anything keeping it from repeating.

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA

Will Win: Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Should Win: Michael C. Hall, Dexter

Could Win: Hugh Laurie, House

You could swap those three around if you like, since all three are deserving and all three have yet to win. I feel like it's Jon Hamm's year, but still don't be surprised if Bryan Cranston repeats for Breaking Bad, even if only critics watch that show.

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA

Will Win: Glenn Close, Damages

Should Win: Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

Could Win: Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

Elisabeth Moss deserves to win the Emmy for that season finale scene with Pete alone. But even if Damages wasn't at its best this season, Glenn Close was.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA

Will Win: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

Should Win: Michael Emerson, Lost

Could Win: Someone from Boston Legal

I'm not quite sure what to make of this category. William Hurt's a big name, but he wasn't all that great on Damages. John Slattery seemed more likely for Mad Men last year. So I'm gonna go with Aaron Paul, since people who watch Breaking Bad seem to like him, and the Emmys clearly like the show. Still, you can never underestimate their unexplainable love for all things Boston Legal. If only Jimmy Smits had submitted here instead of guest actor for Dexter.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA

Will Win: Hope Davis, In Treatment

Should Win: Rose Byrne, Damages

Could Win: Rose Byrne, Damages

Dianne Wiest won last year for In Treatment, so I see Hope Davis reaping the same benefit from that actors' showcase. I nearly put 24's Cherry Jones as my should win, since anyone who can say 24 dialogue with a straight face deserves praise, but I have to go with Rose Byrne, even if she's actually the lead on the show.

BEST COMEDY

Will Win: 30 Rock

Should Win: How I Met Your Mother

Could Win: How I Met Your Mother

Most people may disagree, but I'm going to go ahead and say it: How I Met Your Mother is a better show than 30 Rock. Furthermore, 30 Rock was especially inconsistent this year, with a dud in between every funny episode. Since Emmys judge on single episodes and buzz, that won't matter.

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY

Will Win: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

Should Win: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

Could Win: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

It's amazing how much people seem to love Jim Parsons on The Big Bang Theory. But there's still no arguing with El Generalissimo. Unless Tony Shalhoub wins for the 13th time.

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY

Will Win: Toni Collette, United States of Tara

Should Win: Toni Collette, United States of Tara

Could Win: Tina Fey, 30 Rock

Yeah, this was the year of Tina Fey and all, but Toni Collette played 4 completely different characters, and (mostly) kept from going too over-the-top. Hard to imagine bigger Emmy bait.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY

Will Win: Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother

Should Win: Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother

Could Win: Someone from 30 Rock

This is without a doubt NPH's year to win. I mean, he's the host! They can't let the host go home empty-handed! Plus, he should be collecting his 4th statue, not his first, for his (sorry, I have to) legendary performance as Barney Stinson. I'd be more worried about the guys from 30 Rock if there was just one of them, but I feel like 30 Rock fans may end up splitting their vote. And if Dwight or Drama wins, the Emmys will be beyond redemption.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY

Will Win: Amy Poehler, Saturday Night Live

Should Win: Kristin Chenowith, Pushing Daisies

Could Win: Kristin Wiig, Saturday Night Live

The Emmys are going SNL crazy this year, not only giving guest actress to Tina Fey but guest actor to Justin Timberlake for hosting (over 30 Rock's Jon Hamm and Alan Alda? That seems worthy of a "Really?!?! with Seth and Amy"). Since Amy Poehler won't take lead actress since her show sucks, they'll make it up to her here.

BEST REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM

Will Win: The Amazing Race

Should Win: Top Chef

Could Win: Hah!

The Amazing Race has won this award EVERY YEAR SINCE IT WAS CREATED. It's the biggest sure-thing of the night.

BEST HOST FOR A REALITY PROGRAM

Will Win: Ryan Seacrest, American Idol

Should Win: Padma Lakshmi and Tom Colicchio, Top Chef

Could Win: Phil Keoghan, The Amazing Race

This award should have been eliminated as punishment for last year's atrocity. I'm picking Ryan Seacrest cause I assume he owns half of the voters by this point, but I'm always going to root for Top Chef.

BEST VARIETY, MUSIC, OR COMEDY SHOW

Will Win: The Daily Show

Should Win: The Daily Show

Could Win: Saturday Night Live

The Daily Show has won I think the past six years or so, and has deserved it every single time. While this year's no exception, SNL had a few good sketches during election season, and Emmy voters are stupid enough to ignore the other 85% of the season that was crap.

So those are my predictions. Who are you rooting for? Who do you think is inevitable? And will you watch the awards, or just fast forward to the NPH parts?

Oscar Predictions

UPDATE: I'm switching Supporting Actress from Penelope Cruz to Viola Davis.

It's that time again. With the Academy Awards telecast airing this Sunday, it's time for me to do my final predictions. Let's hope I do better than I did with the Golden Globes.

Best Picture
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire or Milk
Should Have Been Nominated: The Dark Knight, Wall-E
Shouldn't Have Been Nominated: Benjamin Button, The Reader

It would be one of the biggest upsets in recent history if anything but Slumdog won, and I can't see anything besides possibly Milk having the power to do so. Benjamin Button's considered the biggest spoiler, but it gets very little love, and I suppose The Reader is still a possibility. But this is a category you can feel comfortable betting on.

Best Actor
Will Win: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Should Win: Mickey Rourke or Sean Penn, Milk
Should Have Been Nominated: Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Shouldn't Have Been Nominated: Brad Pitt, Benjamin Button

This is a really tight race that could go either way. Sean Penn perhaps gives a better performance, but he's won before and Mickey Rourke's got the kind of personal story voters like. That's why I'm betting on Rourke.

Best Actress
Will Win: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Should Win: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Should Have Been Nominated: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Shouldn't Have Been Nominated: Angelina Jolie, Changeling

The Reader may be Kate Winslet's weaker performance in 2008, but it's still Oscar-level work and she's still long overdue for a win. Anne Hathaway's still got plenty of nominations left in her, so the biggest competitor is Meryl Streep. Since Doubt is hardly Streep's best work, this should be an easy win for Winslet. Unless Melissa Leo creeps in as a dark horse...

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Should Win: Heath Ledger
Should Have Been Nominated: Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Shouldn't Have Been Nominated: All deserved it

The biggest no-brainer of the night.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis, Doubt
Should Win: Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Should Have Been Nominated: Rosemarie Dewitt, Rachel Getting Married
Shouldn't Have Been Nominated: Amy Adams, Doubt

The least predictable race of the night. Penelope Cruz is the frontrunner, so my gut says she's bound to lose.. But who can beat her? My bet is Viola Davis, who makes the most of her limited screen time. But I'm also kind of feeling a surprise upset by Taraji P. Henson, and I wouldn't count out Marisa Tomei either.

Best Director
Will Win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Should Have Been Nominated: Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Shouldn't Have Been Nominated: Stephen Daldry, The Reader

There's a slight chance voters may reward David Fincher to make up for Benjamin Button's loss in best picture, but I doubt it. This is about as much of a given as Slumdog for best picture.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Milk
Should Win: Milk
Should Have Been Nominated: Rachel Getting Married
Shouldn't Have Been Nominated: In Bruges

This one's a tight race between Milk and Wall-E, but I think enough people will mark down Wall-E for its lack of dialogue to give Milk the win. Though there's always a chance of an In Bruges sneak attack.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Have Been Nominated: The Dark Knight
Shouldn't Have Been Nominated: Benjamin Button

Another category Slumdog should easily carry. Some attention has been given to Benjamin Button's terrible script, but I think the most likely upset is Frost/Nixon. Still not gonna happen.

Now the Rest:

Foreign Film - The Class
Waltz with Bashir is the frontrunner, but as an animated documentary, it's way too weird for the stuck-in-the-past Academy.

Documentary - Man on Wire
It's won just about every award it's been up for. Have voters even seen the other films?

Animated Film - Wall-E
The second biggest no-brainer of the night.

Cinematography - Slumdog Millionaire
Benjamin Button is certainly beautiful, but Slumdog's camerawork is way more innovative.

Visual Effects - The Dark Knight
This could easily go to Benjamin Button, but I think voters want to make sure Dark Knight gets something.

Art Direction - Benjamin Button
Voters will leap at the opportunity to give Benjamin Button one of the 13 awards it's up for.

Costume Design - The Duchess
It always goes to the period piece.

Film Editing - Slumdog Millionaire
It usually goes to the film whose editing is most noticeable.

Makeup - Benjamin Button
The award Benjamin Button most deserves.

Score - Slumdog Millionaire
....Though if they go the traditional route, that's all Benjamin Button.

Song - "Down to Earth," Wall-E
The two Slumdog songs should split the vote, letting Peter Gabriel's deserving song win.

Sound Editing and Mixing - The Dark Knight
These categories are made for the blockbusters.

Short Film (Animated) - Presto
If Wall-E was a lesser Pixar film, Presto would have totally overshadowed it.

Short Film (Live Action) - Spielzeugland (Toyland)
I heard it was about the Holocaust. Oscar voters love the Holocaust.

Documentary Short - The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306
It's about the MLK assassination.

Oscar Nod Predictions

Tomorrow morning the Oscar nominations will be announced, and that means it's time for some predictions. After my utter failure at predicting the Golden Globe winners, I'm going a bit more conservative this time around, mostly saying what everyone's expecting. But the Oscars always throw some curveballs, and movies like Wall-E, The Reader, Gran Torino, and Revolutionary Road could easily do better than expected. Here are my predictions in the top 8 categories (in order of likelihood):

BEST PICTURE

Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Frost/Nixon
The Dark Knight

Alternates - Wall-E, The Reader, Gran Torino

BEST ACTOR

Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Alternates - Richard Jenkins, The Visitor; Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road

BEST ACTRESS

Meryl Streep, Doubt
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Alternate - Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Josh Brolin, Milk
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Alternates - James Franco/Emile Hirsch, Milk; Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Alternate - Amy Adams, Doubt

BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon

Alternates - Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino; Stephen Daldry, The Reader

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Milk
Vicky Christina Barcelona
Rachel Getting Married
Wall-E
The Wrestler

Alternates - Burn After Reading, Happy-Go-Lucky

BEST ADAPATED SCREENPLAY

Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Doubt
The Reader

Alternates - The Dark Knight, Revolutionary Road

We'll find out how I did tomorrow. In the meantime, check out the Razzie nominations. I'm personally glad to see The Happening did so "well," as it deserved every one of those nominations. I can't say I've seen The Love Guru or The Hottie and the Nottie, but here's one award I'd rather let someone else decide.

Golden Globe Predictions

I can't say I've ever followed the Golden Globe Awards too closely. Most years I don't even watch it. But since the awards show is back after a year off due to the writer's strike, I thought I'd give predictions a try. Looking at past results, I get the sense they like bloated Oscarbait in their movies and fresh, new shows for TV. Using only those two broad generalizations as a guideline, here are my picks and predictions:

Movies:

Best Picture, Drama
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Competition: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Benjamin Button follows the Babel tradition of picking an obvious awards movie I didn't like. But if the voters have taste, they'll go with Slumdog. And Revolutionary Road and The Reader could really use the boost if they won.

Best Picture, Comedy or Musical
Will Win: Mamma Mia
Competition: Vicky Christina Barcelona
Should Win: Burn After Reading
Critics hate Mamma Mia, but it's the second highest grossing movie in the UK and the Globes always go with the musical. Still, Vicky Christina Barcelona is probably a safer prediction.

Actor, Drama
Will Win: Sean Penn, Milk
Competition: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Should Win: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Sean Penn's currently the favorite for the Oscar, which makes him the favorite here. But the Globes clearly didn't love Milk, which could make any of the other four come out on top.

Actress, Drama
Will Win: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Competition: Meryl Streep, Doubt
Should Win: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Voters will see this as a good category to reward Revolutionary Road, and will reward Meryl Streep in comedy. But they might decide to pander to Angelina Jolie's celebrity or reward Anne Hathaway's great performance.

Actor, Comedy
Will Win: Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey
Competition: Colin Farrell, In Bruges
Should Win: James Franco, The Pineapple Express
Dustin Hoffman has the most "respectable" performance in the group, though James Franco certainly has the funniest.

Actress, Comedy
Will Win: Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia
Competition: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Should Win: Frances McDormand, Burn After Reading
Sally Hawkins is the critics' choice, but the Globes love Meryl Streep and musicals too much to let this one go any other way.

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Competition: None
Should Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
One of many, many awards to go to Heath Ledger this season.

Supporting Actress
Will Win: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Competition: Viola Davis, Doubt
Should Win: Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Lots to choose from, all with a shot. If Kate Winslet doesn't win for Revolutionary Road, she's winning here. But Penelope Cruz currently has the most heat, which makes her my guess.

Director
Will Win: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Competition: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
I figure this one will go the way best drama goes. If they love Button, Fincher's winning.

Screenplay
Will Win: Frost/Nixon
Competition: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
A good place to reward Frost/Nixon for its great stage-to-screen adaptation. If Slumdog wins here, it's winning everything.

Foreign Film
Will Win: Waltz with Bashir
Competition: Gomorrah
Should Win: I've seen none of these movies
Waltz with Bashir has gotten the most attention, so I'll go with that.

Animated Film
Wall-E. No question.

Original Score
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Competition: Frost/Nixon
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
I HATE the Benjamin Button score, but awards voters will love it.

Original Song
Will Win: Bruce Springsteen, "The Wrestler"
Competition: Peter Gabriel, "Down to Earth"
Should Win: Either of them
Really tough call between those two songs. I'm partial to Gabriel's, but I think Springsteen will take it home.

TV:

Best Drama
Will Win: Mad Men
Competition: True Blood
Should Win: Mad Men
Mad Men is the show of the moment, so this one's a no-brainer. But if they want to go with the newest show, that would be True Blood.

Best Comedy
Will Win: 30 Rock
Competition: Californication
Should Win: 30 Rock
Same as with Mad Men. With no good competition, the Globes will mirror the Emmys.

Actor, Drama
Will Win: Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Competition: Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Should Win: Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Jon Hamm won last year, so how about giving Michael C. Hall some love? It probably won't happen, but I'm optimistic.

Actress, Drama
Will Win: January Jones, Mad Men
Competition: Anna Paquin, True Blood
Should Win: January Jones, Mad Men
This category usually goes to the most talked-about new role. True Blood's the newer show, but Betty's dominance on Mad Men this year should give it to January Jones.

Actor, Comedy
Will Win: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Competition: David Duchovny, Californication
Should Win: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Duchovny won last year (since Californication was new), but Baldwin should be back on top this time.

Actress, Comedy
Will Win: Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Competition: None
Should Win: Tina Fey, 30 Rock
After the year she's had, would they really go with anyone else?

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Tom Wilkinson, John Adams
Competition: Jeremy Piven, Entourage
Should Win: Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
When they can, the Globes go for someone from a miniseries, and that someone is Tom Wilkinson. But, like the Emmys, they also love Jeremy Piven.

Supporting Actress
Will Win: Laura Dern, Recount
Competition: Dianne Wiest, In Treatment
Should Win: I haven't seen any of the shows

Best Miniseries
John Adams

Best Actor, Miniseries
Paul Giamatti, John Adams

Best Actress, Miniseries
Laura Linney, John Adams

Election Predictions

With a day before the election and many of the final polls released, I've made my own predictions in the map above. This is admittedly a somewhat optimistic prediction, as Florida and Ohio could very easily turn for McCain. On the other hand, I gave swing states like North Carolina and Missouri to McCain. But regardless of how far Obama seems to be ahead or how un-swingy your state is, make sure to vote tomorrow. This is far from a done deal, and Obama needs everyone's votes to make this happen. None of us wants this to be yet another election where the pundits talk of the failure of the youth vote. So do the right thing and Barack the vote tomorrow.

Now a look at the map state-by-state, starting with the most important.

Pennsylvania

It's looking like Pennsylvania will be this year's Ohio/Florida as the state that decides it all. With polls showing Obama well ahead in Pennsylvania for months now, this hardly seems like the biggest swing state. But there's 2 big reasons why this is the state to watch:

1. Polls have tightened enough that Obama's lead has gone from 14% to 7%.
2. It is one of only two plausible scenarios in which McCain can win.

With 21 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is a must-win state for McCain, and has the potential to shift the electoral tide. Pennsylvania hasn't voted Republican since 1988, but McCain has put all of his resources into it in the last few weeks. 7% is still a lot to overcome in a single day, but this is still a worrisome state for Obama supporters. Still, a McCain win in Pennsylvania is not a death knell for Obama. There are three scenarios in which Obama can lose Pennsylvania but win the election:

1. Win Ohio.
2. Win Florida.
3. Win Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada.

So while Pennsylvania has started to worry me recently, I still believe it will pull through for Obama just as it did for Kerry and Gore despite far scarier polling in the days leading up to the election. But it will still be "too close to call" for most of the night.

Virginia and Colorado

Now on to two states Bush won in 2004 that seem like they're heading for Obama this time around. If Obama wins all Kerry states + Iowa and New Mexico (a safe assumption barring the analysis above), he only needs one of these states to clinch the presidency. But securing all other Bush states and both of these is McCain's second most plausible way of winning the election, making these the next most important states to watch.

Virginia hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964. But with high turn-out among black voters, excitement among college students, and Democrats moving into Northern Virginia (or the Fake Virginia, as Nancy Pfotenhauer would say), Virginia is looking more and more like a safe bet for Obama. But with some tightening in the polls that have brought Obama from +7% to +4%, this seems even less like a done deal than Pennsylvania. We won't know the results when polls close at 7, but I still think it'll be called for Obama before the end of the night.

Like Virginia, Colorado is a red state on the verge of turning blue, with polls currently at +5% Obama. Those have tightened from the +8% they were last week, but even the McCain campaign was admitting a few weeks ago that Colorado is probably out of its reach. If Obama can get Colorado, he just needs to hold on to Pennsylvania and New Hampshire for the win.

Ohio and Florida

As the key battleground states of 2004 and 2000, respectively, this time around their importance will be decided by other states. These are easily two of the closest races, with polls showing a statistical tie that slightly favors Obama. But while these are both must-win states for McCain, Obama only needs one if he loses Pennsylvania or Colorado and Virginia. I have optimistically followed the polls to suggest an Obama victory in both of these states. But as Ohio is polling slightly more for Obama than Florida, I could easily see them splitting candidates or both going for McCain. Neither state is likely to be called before midnight, and I'm hoping by that point the results won't matter.

Nevada and New Hampshire

These states are small but potentially crucial with 5 and 4 electoral votes, respectively. Nevada voted for Bush in 2004, New Hampshire voted for Kerry. Both are polling well ahead for Obama (+6% and +10%). But despite their size, they can make a difference. If Obama loses Pennsylvania, Nevada could still help him win the election. If he loses Colorado and Virginia (and all other swing states), Nevada could create an electoral tie. Like Colorado and New Mexico, it seems secure for Obama, but it is still one to watch.

New Hampshire, at 10% ahead for Obama, does not seem like much of a swing state. But since Obama was leading 11% in primary polls before losing to Hilary Clinton, NH polls clearly don't tell the whole truth. As "live free or die" followers, NH likes to buck conventions, and a poll saying they will vote for Obama may be the best way to get them to support McCain. Had Gore won NH in 2000, he would have been our president. It should ultimately go Obama, but I expect it to be a lot closer than the polls say.

North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana

These three states are all serious red states that at various points have shown either a statistical tie or a slight Obama lead. Indiana has shifted for McCain recently, but North Carolina and Missouri are both certainly in play. In the event of an Obama landslide, all three could easily shift blue. But I bet in this case they'll all drop back for McCain.

Iowa and New Mexico

Both states voted for Bush in 2004, but it's hard to see either one going for McCain this time around. Iowa was the state that set Obama on the path to the nomination, and polls have shown Obama up around 14% ever since. New Mexico is a bit closer, but still shows an Obama lead of around 7%, which has steadily grown in the past few weeks. It seems highly unlikely either would switch back at the last minute.

And the rest...

Of course, other states could potentially surprise on election night. West Virginia, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and even McCain's home state of Arizona show weak leads that could be overturned in an Obama surge. On the other side, Minnesota and Wisconsin have been swing states in the past and polls have dropped enough that they could be again.

But at the end of the day, I still think it will come down to Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Colorado, and after a long night of excitement we will find out Barack Obama is our next president. I've given plenty of reasons above for why my map may not come to be, but many of the predictions on CNN show an even bigger Obama win. At this point, there's only two things we can do: Wait and see what happens, and most importantly, VOTE! As good as it's looking, the election is not over yet. So do your part and make Barack Obama the next president of the United States.