Golden Globe Predictions

I can't say I've ever followed the Golden Globe Awards too closely. Most years I don't even watch it. But since the awards show is back after a year off due to the writer's strike, I thought I'd give predictions a try. Looking at past results, I get the sense they like bloated Oscarbait in their movies and fresh, new shows for TV. Using only those two broad generalizations as a guideline, here are my picks and predictions:

Movies:

Best Picture, Drama
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Competition: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Benjamin Button follows the Babel tradition of picking an obvious awards movie I didn't like. But if the voters have taste, they'll go with Slumdog. And Revolutionary Road and The Reader could really use the boost if they won.

Best Picture, Comedy or Musical
Will Win: Mamma Mia
Competition: Vicky Christina Barcelona
Should Win: Burn After Reading
Critics hate Mamma Mia, but it's the second highest grossing movie in the UK and the Globes always go with the musical. Still, Vicky Christina Barcelona is probably a safer prediction.

Actor, Drama
Will Win: Sean Penn, Milk
Competition: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Should Win: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Sean Penn's currently the favorite for the Oscar, which makes him the favorite here. But the Globes clearly didn't love Milk, which could make any of the other four come out on top.

Actress, Drama
Will Win: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Competition: Meryl Streep, Doubt
Should Win: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Voters will see this as a good category to reward Revolutionary Road, and will reward Meryl Streep in comedy. But they might decide to pander to Angelina Jolie's celebrity or reward Anne Hathaway's great performance.

Actor, Comedy
Will Win: Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey
Competition: Colin Farrell, In Bruges
Should Win: James Franco, The Pineapple Express
Dustin Hoffman has the most "respectable" performance in the group, though James Franco certainly has the funniest.

Actress, Comedy
Will Win: Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia
Competition: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Should Win: Frances McDormand, Burn After Reading
Sally Hawkins is the critics' choice, but the Globes love Meryl Streep and musicals too much to let this one go any other way.

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Competition: None
Should Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
One of many, many awards to go to Heath Ledger this season.

Supporting Actress
Will Win: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Competition: Viola Davis, Doubt
Should Win: Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Lots to choose from, all with a shot. If Kate Winslet doesn't win for Revolutionary Road, she's winning here. But Penelope Cruz currently has the most heat, which makes her my guess.

Director
Will Win: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Competition: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
I figure this one will go the way best drama goes. If they love Button, Fincher's winning.

Screenplay
Will Win: Frost/Nixon
Competition: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
A good place to reward Frost/Nixon for its great stage-to-screen adaptation. If Slumdog wins here, it's winning everything.

Foreign Film
Will Win: Waltz with Bashir
Competition: Gomorrah
Should Win: I've seen none of these movies
Waltz with Bashir has gotten the most attention, so I'll go with that.

Animated Film
Wall-E. No question.

Original Score
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Competition: Frost/Nixon
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
I HATE the Benjamin Button score, but awards voters will love it.

Original Song
Will Win: Bruce Springsteen, "The Wrestler"
Competition: Peter Gabriel, "Down to Earth"
Should Win: Either of them
Really tough call between those two songs. I'm partial to Gabriel's, but I think Springsteen will take it home.

TV:

Best Drama
Will Win: Mad Men
Competition: True Blood
Should Win: Mad Men
Mad Men is the show of the moment, so this one's a no-brainer. But if they want to go with the newest show, that would be True Blood.

Best Comedy
Will Win: 30 Rock
Competition: Californication
Should Win: 30 Rock
Same as with Mad Men. With no good competition, the Globes will mirror the Emmys.

Actor, Drama
Will Win: Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Competition: Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Should Win: Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Jon Hamm won last year, so how about giving Michael C. Hall some love? It probably won't happen, but I'm optimistic.

Actress, Drama
Will Win: January Jones, Mad Men
Competition: Anna Paquin, True Blood
Should Win: January Jones, Mad Men
This category usually goes to the most talked-about new role. True Blood's the newer show, but Betty's dominance on Mad Men this year should give it to January Jones.

Actor, Comedy
Will Win: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Competition: David Duchovny, Californication
Should Win: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Duchovny won last year (since Californication was new), but Baldwin should be back on top this time.

Actress, Comedy
Will Win: Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Competition: None
Should Win: Tina Fey, 30 Rock
After the year she's had, would they really go with anyone else?

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Tom Wilkinson, John Adams
Competition: Jeremy Piven, Entourage
Should Win: Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
When they can, the Globes go for someone from a miniseries, and that someone is Tom Wilkinson. But, like the Emmys, they also love Jeremy Piven.

Supporting Actress
Will Win: Laura Dern, Recount
Competition: Dianne Wiest, In Treatment
Should Win: I haven't seen any of the shows

Best Miniseries
John Adams

Best Actor, Miniseries
Paul Giamatti, John Adams

Best Actress, Miniseries
Laura Linney, John Adams