An Oscarcast That Will Live in Infamy

It seems every year I write a variation on the same post about how the Oscars sucked in any given year. The banter's lame, the show's too long, the 20 minute interpretive dance number made absolutely no sense - there's always something to complain about. Which is why this year I had to stop for a moment and check the general consensus to make sure I'm not just repeating myself. Because in fact no, this year was not just the same old crap. This year really was particularly bad.

If you've read this blog at all in the past few months then you already know I think their choices for picture and director were awful. But what may have been less predictable is just how bad everything else was. I was skeptical of James Franco and Anne Hathaway as hosts, but figured they could somehow pull it off. Not so much. Rather than using the charm of his talk show bit in 127 Hours, James Franco came off as stiff and monotone the whole time, like he didn't want to be there. And while I think Anne Hathaway has the right energy for the job and could make a good host someday, she just wasn't given any good material. Plus somehow everyone I've talked to who watched the show thought they were high.

Nobody else did any better in trying to come up with something memorable. Kirk Douglas hijacked the show for about ten minutes. Then Melissa Leo hijacked it for another 15. How was she allowed to talk about nothing forever yet Aaron Sorkin got cut off after 30 seconds? Would a bad speech give the Academy the right to revoke her Oscar and give it to the far more deserving (and adorable) Hailee Steinfeld?

What else was there? I would applaud the return of the best song performances this year, except this had to be the worst year for best original song in my memory. The winner has to be the least memorable song Randy Newman has ever written. I admit that I did enjoy the auto-tuned Harry Potter, so I'll give them that. And the elimination of the long, pointless montages was a welcome decision. But that hardly makes up for what otherwise was an awkward, uncomfortable, and rather dull show.

The weak production puts even more focus on the awards themselves, which bucked the past four years' trend of actually rewarding good movies by taking us back to the '90s when any middling movie from Harvey Weinstein could win Best Picture. I had some hope Social Network might surprise when it went into the final four awards leading The King Sleeps 3-1. Clearly it wasn't a total lovefest if Speech wasn't getting the clean sweep.

But then something even the more pragmatic of Oscar predictors didn't expect happened: Tom Hooper won best director. A relative newbie whose direction was far from the best thing about the movie beat the vastly greater respected and more accomplished David Fincher, whose mark was on every frame of Social Network. It just doesn't really make sense. How did other directors make that decision? Who would pick him over ANY of the four other nominees? To be clear, I'm not saying Speech was poorly directed. It was perfectly adequately directed. But you could have handed that script to many a fellow Brit and gotten a similar result. The movie was a feat of writing and acting; not directing. And yet he's now an Oscar winner.

As for best picture, I had pretty much resigned myself to the inevitable, but it still sucks. I've already written enough about how strongly I feel The King's Speech is unworthy of the win, so I'll save you reading the same rant over again, but I still think it cheapens the meaning of the Oscars. Sure, we mock the Academy's choices every year and never take their decisions too seriously, but they had picked well for four years. Yet this year, joke institutions like the Golden Globes and the National Board of Review made better choices. What does that say of the validity of the Oscars as the highest award in the business?

Anyway, enough complaining. Goodbye 2010, hello 2011. Let's hope next year the Academy returns to awarding quality films instead of just sticking to their favorite subjects (British royals, Holocaust). And let's also hope The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is good, since David Fincher will probably win for it regardless. After all, he's now overdue. And that's how the Oscars work.

Final(ish) Oscar Predictions

After a whole lot of build-up, the Oscars finally air this Sunday, and to be honest, I've kind of stopped caring. Once it became clear The King's Speech was the heavy favorite to win I realized there's no point in paying attention to an awards ceremony willing to bestow its highest honor on such an irrelevant pick. Nevertheless, here are my current picks and predictions for what will happen on Sunday.

Best Picture

Will Win: The Social Network

Should Win: The Social Network

Will Actually Win: The King's Speech

This is the category I've struggled with the most, and I'll probably change my mind five times before I finish this post. Because in truth, The King's Speech will almost certainly win. It won all 3 major guilds and is the more "traditional" pick. But at the end of the day, I still don't believe it. The King's Speech has been sitting in the frontrunner seat for about a month now, and that feels like enough time for the backlash to kick in. And The Social Network's win at the editing guild means there's reason to hold out hope, as silly as that may sound. I'm almost certainly wrong on this, but I think it's closer than people think, and I'd rather bet on what I'm rooting for than on a horrible mistake.

Best Director

Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network

Should Win: David Fincher, The Social Network

Biggest Competition: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Despite the win at the Directors Guild, it would take a clean sweep for Tom Hooper to repeat at the Oscars. The Oscars like to reward auteurs, not newbies. So this feels like a far safer bet for Social Network than Best Picture does.

Best Actor

Will Win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Should Win: James Franco, 127 Hours

Biggest Competition: James Franco, 127 Hours

There's not really any scenario in which Colin Firth doesn't win. Many think he's overdue from A Single Man last year and his movie has the most nominations total. But how cool would it be if the Oscar host won an award?

Best Actress

Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Biggest Competition: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Annette Bening's lost a lot of hype since the summer, and Black Swan just crossed the $100 million mark. Since Natalie Portman worked crazy hard for the part, expect her to be equally rewarded here.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Should Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Biggest Competition: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

If Geoffrey Rush wins this award, you KNOW The King's Speech is taking Best Picture. Cause otherwise this is clear cut win for Bale.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Biggest Competition: The ladies of The Fighter

Melissa Leo was considered the favorite here, but the tides have turned away from her as of late. Since she's also got to fight against Amy Adams (who I personally think gave a stronger performance), I give the edge to the newbie, who showed what a true breakout debut can be.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: The King's Speech

Should Win: The Kids Are All Right

Biggest Competition: Inception

With Social Network comfortably in adapted, and the writer getting lots of publicity for his decades-long quest to get this movie made, this is a no-brainer.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: The Social Network

Should Win: The Social Network

Biggest Competition: True Grit

Since the screenplay is probably the best thing about it, and with The King's Speech comfortably in original, this is a no-brainer.

I'll keep it to straight predictions for the rest:

Best Documentary Feature

Inside Job

Best Animated Feature

Toy Story 3

Best Foreign Language Film

In a Better World

Best Film Editing

The Social Network

Best Cinematography

True Grit

Best Original Score

The Social Network

Best Original Song

"If I Rise" - 127 Hours

Best Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland

Best Visual Effects

Inception

Best Sound Mixing

Inception

Best Sound Editing

Inception

Best Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland

Best Makeup

The Wolfman

Best Animated Short

Day & Night

Best Live Action Short

Na Wewe

Best Documentary Short

Strangers No More

Oscar Morning

After watching the 8:30 AM announcement of the major Oscar nominees, it appears there were no MAJOR surprises. I can say that since I only missed 4 nominations total from my predictions a few days ago, and went 10 for 10 on best picture. But what do we know so far?

Biggest surprise for me was John Hawkes getting into the best supporting actor category, and totally deserved. I think most of us thought his performance would be a touch too subtle to compete with some of the showier parts this year. But since I'd vote him right behind Christian Bale, I was happy to see him get recognized. Still, sad to see it come at the cost of Andrew Garfield. As much as I love Jeremy Renner, I would have gone with Garfield over him. I hope it doesn't show flagging support for The Social Network.

The second biggest surprise for me was the Coens taking Christopher Nolan's slot in best director. And again, always happy to see the Coens be recognized, but maybe they could have taken David O. Russell's slot instead? It just seems weird that Inception is being recognized for its writing and not its directing.

I imagine the foreign film category was surprising to many, given that it included challenging critics' fave Dogtooth, which from my understanding includes incest and cat killing. But this year has been so devoid of popular foreign film options that I truly don't care. Even with all of the marginally known options nominated (Biutiful, Incendies, In a Better World), I haven't seen any of them and probably won't. What happened to the days when movies like Life is Beautiful, All About My Mother, and Pan's Labyrinth were in this category?

As far as overall trends, it sounds like The King's Speech has the most overall nominations, and True Grit and Winter's Bone did better than expected. Social Network lost one in Andrew Garfield and Black Swan lost one in not being nominated for screenplay. But that's not ultimately what will decide the race. As I already wrote a few days ago (in depth), it's Social Network vs. The King's Speech, and the winner depends on the Academy's mood this year.

(For those curious, the other two nominations I missed was Javier Bardem for best actor instead of Ryan Gosling and Another Year for best screenplay instead of Black Swan.)

UPDATE: Just saw the list of nominees not announced on TV. For the most part, the movies in the big 10 continued to dominate in the smaller categories too. So just a few observations:

Many would say this was a better year for nonfiction films than fiction, so I was curious how documentary would go. As expected, presumed frontrunners Exit Through the Gift Shop and Inside Job were nominated, though other popular choice Waiting for Superman was not. Of the serious summer war docs, Restepo made it in but The Tillman Story did not. And haven't heard of the other two. Still rooting for Exit Through the Gift Shop. At least until I see Inside Job.

Also, Hereafter for visual effects? Really? I mean, I haven't seen it, but over Tron?

Pretty happy with all of the nominees in best score, and hoping Trent Reznor will soon be able to call himself Oscar winner.

Finally, the best song category is weak since there were no particularly good options this year, and they didn't even nominate the song from Waiting for Superman that I think was expected to win. But they did two things right: only nominate 4 songs since there clearly weren't five good ones (yet only three the year of The Wrestler, Wall-E, and Slumdog?), and keep Burlesque shut out.

Oscar Nod Predictions

The Oscar nominations will (finally) be announced first thing Tuesday morning, and this year I've decided to venture some predictions on the major categories because, you know, why not. But before I list the predictions, I wanted to write a little about how the big race has been shaping up so far this season, especially in light of The King's Speech's first major win at the Producers Guild Awards last night.

All season long, the Oscar bloggers have been calling this a two-horse race between The Social Network and The King's Speech, and, until the awards starting pouring in for Social Network, giving King the edge. And all season long, I've assumed this was some kind of strategy on the bloggers' part to ensure Social Network would be the eventual winner. After all, the frontrunner tends to stumble, so by talking up a lesser movie as the frontrunner over the obvious winner it would only help Social in the end.

But after last night, it's clear they weren't just being devious, and that all the reports of Academy members responding better to King weren't just too small sample size after all. Sure, common knowledge says that the Academy is old-fashioned and goes with the obvious, traditional movie that pulls the heartstrings over the hip, innovative, and better respected movie. But that hasn't been the case since, well, Crash infamously beat out Brokeback Mountain. The Departed, No Country for Old Men, The Departed, and even Slumdog Millionaire are unconventional Oscar movies for different reasons. Compared to them, Social Network actually makes a lot of sense for Oscar's mandate.

Because while conventional wisdom is that The King's Speech is the obvious Oscar movie while The Social Network is the challenging critic's choice, I'm not so sure I agree. First of all, the Oscars generally go for big movies. If Forrest Gump vs. Pulp Fiction is the prototypical "Oscars are traditional" example, then Forrest Gump is a whole lot more epic than King, which is just a nice little very British history lesson. Some have mocked the Oscars' recent push towards more challenging fare as turning them into the Indie Awards, but all of those recent winners are still bigger than King.

Second, the Academy wants its picks to seem "important." Even Crash pretended to have something relevant to say. The Social Network is no doubt the "important" movie of the year, attempting to define a generation and a technological movement. At the end of the day, what is King's Speech really about? One man overcoming a disability? A king who must inspire a nation to get through a war? Cause if it's that, I don't think the movie successfully proves the speech made much of a difference. I mean come on, how much power does a king in the 20th century really have? Sure it's nice to see him succeed, but beyond that, who really cares?

Finally, I think the whole emotional debate is not as cut and dry as many would believe. "The Social Network is heartless; The King's Speech is moving." I disagree. Maybe it's hard to sympathize with Mark Zuckerberg the character, a socially-challenged rich kid who turns against his friends to succeed. But Eduardo Saverin is an extremely sympathetic character, in a lot of ways the second protagonist, and I have trouble believing nobody felt for him at the end. And even Mark deserves a little pity as he pathetically refreshes his page, waiting to see if Erica accepted his friend request. While again, King's ending was nice, but I wasn't jumping out of my seat in applause. And if that one scene is what's supposed to make this the best movie of the year, I'm not buying it.

So I'm not saying The Social Network is a slam dunk for best picture, but I am saying The King's Speech would be the worst best picture pick in a long, long time, maybe even worse than Crash. Not because it's a bad movie. The fact that it is impossible to hate is the biggest reason it's considered so highly. But because it would be an entirely irrelevant choice. Best Picture is supposed to go to the movie to represent the year, that you come back to 20 years from now. 20 years from now, people will see The King's Speech and say "I have no idea what that is." The Queen and Frost/Nixon weren't considered frontrunners in their years, so I honestly can't understand why people think so highly of The King's Speech. Then again, everyone I know liked King a whole lot more than I did, so maybe I'm letting personal feelings get in the way of objective thinking. Either way, I don't get it.

Anyway, enough ranting, time for predictions. Each category is ranked in order of likelihood to be nominated.

Best Picture

The Social Network

The King's Speech

Inception

Black Swan

The Fighter

True Grit

Toy Story 3

The Kids Are All Right

127 Hours

Winter's Bone

Best Director

David Fincher, The Social Network

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Christopher Nolan, Inception

David O. Russell, The Fighter

Best Actor

Colin Firth, The King's Speech

James Franco, 127 Hours

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

Best Actress

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter

Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

Jeremy Renner, The Town

Best Supporting Actress

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Best Original Screenplay

The King's Speech

The Kids Are All Right

Inception

Black Swan

The Fighter

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter's Bone

127 Hours

Zandervision Movie Awards 2010

Following up on my top 10 list (posted yesterday), here are my picks for the best actors, directors, etc. of 2010. Rather than sticking to the standard winner/follow-up formula, this year in the major categories I'm going up to five choices, ranked in order, so this can double as what I would pick as the Oscar nominations (which are announced next week).

Best Actor

James Franco, 127 Hours

Runners-Up:

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island

Best Actress

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Runners-Up:

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Carey Mulligan, Never Let Me Go

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Emma Stone, Easy A

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter

Runners-Up:

John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

Andrew Garfield, The Social Network & Never Let Me Go

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer

Best Supporting Actress

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (yes, it's a lead role, but this is where she's campaigning)

Runners-Up:

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer

Barbara Hershey, Black Swan

Keira Knightley, Never Let Me Go

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Runners-Up:

David Fincher, The Social Network

Edgar Wright, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

Christopher Nolan, Inception

Best Original Screenplay

The Kids Are All Right

Runners-Up:

Inception

Black Swan

Easy A

The King's Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Social Network

Runners-Up:

Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

Toy Story 3

True Grit

127 Hours

The Golden Globes Are a Joke

If there's one thing the Golden Globes are most famous for (on the movie side, anyway), it's nominating movie stars for unworthy performances just to get them to show up. So following such gems as Nicole Kidman in Birth and Sandra Bullock or Julia Roberts in anything, I was curious: what kind of craziness would the Globes come up with this year?

The answer? The entire musical/comedy category. That's right, the entire category is awful. Now, we knew going into it that this was a weak year in that area. There was no big popular comedy like The Hangover or big Oscar-baiting musical like Chicago, but there were still some decent enough choices they could have gone with. They could have picked a high-quality cult hit like Easy A or Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World. They could have picked a mainstream but enjoyable comedy like Date Night. Or a slightly more serious pick like Love and Other Drugs, which they clearly liked enough to give Jake Gyllenhaal and Anne Hathaway nods (both totally deserved).

Instead, they took the one serious contender which is a shoo-in to win (The Kids Are All Right) and surrounded it with crap. To be fair, Red was a popular and well-liked movie, so I guess it gets a pass. But the Johnny Depp double dip is exactly the kind of star whoring the Globes are infamous for. Do you know a single person who didn't think Alice in Wonderland was one of the biggest duds of the year? Or a single person who saw the trailer for The Tourist and said "wow, that looks awful"? Followed by critics saying "remember when you said that looked awful? It's just as bad as you think it is." Yet it scored nods for picture, actor, and actress. And Johnny Depp got nominated for both! I'm not even going to bother getting into Burlesque - I think the name speaks for itself. I guess I should be grateful Cher and Christina Aguilera were left out. And at least they had the sense to nominate Emma Stone.

Anyway, the HFPA got most of their star whoring out there so the drama section's a considerably better field. With drama, the Globes like to play at predicting the Oscars, and the five nominees are all likely to make the big 10: The Social Network, The King's Speech, Black Swan, Inception, and The Fighter. The success of the first two was pretty heavily expected, so the only story here is all the love for Black Swan and The Fighter. I think some people online have been underestimating Black Swan cause they think Oscar voters don't know what a good movie looks like. Here's some proof they're wrong. As for The Fighter, this gives it a legit boost and some much-needed buzz to keep it's spot in the 10 (since the movie doesn't live up to the great performances in it). That still won't get Mark Wahlberg in at the Oscars though.

Other things of note in movies: True Grit was completely shut out. Not sure if that means they really didn't like it, or the movie wasn't available to screen at the time they voted. Suspecting the latter. 127 Hours, Winter's Bone, and The Town were all MIA in Best Drama, but none of those were too surprising. The Globes would never go for something as indie as Winter's Bone, or even really 127 Hours, and both still got something (actress and screenplay, respectively). The Town could have used the boost as it's fighting for spot #10 with Winter's Bone, but the nod for Jeremy Renner is a boost enough. And in case you were wondering, yes, the nomination for Halle Berry counts as star whoring.

On to TV, where I have considerably less to say. If the Globe movie nominations are known for star whoring, the Globe TV nominations are known for praising the new and the fresh over the old and the stale. Which often makes the Globes much better than the Emmys, though it also means weak new shows have a better chance than great long-running shows. But in a year with VERY few new breakout hits, this year's crop has a nice mix of both.

On the new front, no surprise to see Boardwalk Empire and The Walking Dead under drama, as they were the only new shows to make any impression this year. It's a strong category overall, as they're joined by Mad Men and Dexter, two shows past the Globes' usual cut-off date that both had great seasons, and The Good Wife, which now seems to really be the only good network drama. True Blood did very well with the Globes the past two years, but after a widely panned season it's deservedly out of favor. And I was happy to see a nod for Idris Elba in one of my personal new faves Luther down in the miniseries category. Though if they were going to reward one Dexter actress, I would have picked Jennifer Carpenter over Julia Stiles.

As for comedy, not a whole lot to say. With nothing new to shake anything up, it's pretty much a repeat. There's a lot of Showtime love with both Nurse Jackie and The Big C in most categories, which I neither support nor oppose. The Office and 30 Rock continue to coast on by with weak seasons cause apparently awards voters don't watch Community or How I Met Your Mother. With Glee less of a force than it was last year, I'd expect Modern Family to take it.

So that's my morning-of reaction. I've been spotty with the blog as of late, but heading into Oscar season I'll try to be on here more reviewing some of the movies in question, keeping you updated on how the Oscar race is shaping up, and of course, my annual top 10 lists for movies and TV. Stay tuned.

Last Minute Emmy Predictions

Emmys are tonight, and with a ton of fresh blood in the field it's actually tough to predict this year's crop. Will Emmys keep to their infamous tradition of rewarding the same old same old? Or will they recognize one of the strongest crops of new shows since, well, the year Lost premiered? Here are my (probably very wrong) guesses:

Best Drama

Will Win: Lost (but realistically probably Mad Men)

Should Win: Lost or Dexter

Dark Horse: Pretty much anything but True Blood

Snubbed: Damages

This is a really tough category to call. Do they reward Lost for finishing strong despite a controversial ending (like they did with The Sopranos)? Do they recognize Dexter's best year? Do they reward The Good Wife for being a break-out freshman and a traditional network drama? Do they side with the critics in calling Breaking Bad the top show? Or do they let Mad Men go three for three? Seeing as it's the Emmys, it will probably be Mad Men, but for some reason I'm going with Lost.

Best Comedy

Will Win: Modern Family

Should Win: Modern Family or Glee

Dark Horse: Glee

Snubbed: Party Down

This one's a little easier. Despite 30 Rock winning in all of its three previous years, I think everyone knows this one's really between the two break-out new shows: Glee or Modern Family. Glee's won most of the awards for being the phenomenon of the year, and Emmys have occasionally gone that route in the past (like giving Lost a win in its first year). But Modern Family's so much more Emmy-friendly (and consistent) that I bet it takes the win.

Best Actor, Drama

Will Win: Michael C. Hall, Dexter

Should Win: Michael C. Hall, Dexter

Dark Horse: Bryan Cranston, Hugh Laurie, Jon Hamm

Snubbed: Timothy Olyphant, Justified

Another really tough category. Bryan Cranston won the past two years and Breaking Bad fans say this season's been his best yet, so he's definitely the favorite. But Michael C. Hall's won other awards this year for his best year yet. Plus he's shockingly never won here before. But neither have Hugh Laurie and Jon Hamm, both of whom had very strong submissions. Could go any of the four ways.

Best Actress, Drama

Will Win: Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife

Should Win: Glenn Close, Damages

Dark Horse: January Jones, Mad Men

Julianna Margulies has won everything else so far, and I think it's a safe bet she'll take this one too.

Best Supporting Actor, Drama

Will Win: Michael Emerson, Lost

Should Win: Terry O'Quinn, Lost

Dark Horse: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

Snubbed: Campbell Scott, Damages

There is a very strong chance the two Losties (both of whom have already won) will cancel each other out, and Aaron Paul will win for what I'm told is a fantastic performance. But here's my thoughts: Michael Emerson has the better episode submission, since Dr. Linus is one of the best of the season. But Terry O'Quinn gave the better season-long performance, since he had to play polar opposites in the Man in Black and Sideways Locke. And there's always the chance Andre Braugher takes it instead.

Best Supporting Actress, Drama

Will Win: Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

Should Win: Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

Dark Horse: Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife

Snubbed: Jennifer Carpenter, Dexter

Joan may have been woefully underused last year on Mad Men, but the episode she submitted is a knockout, plus everyone loves her. Though Archie Panjabi is just as much of a scene-stealer on The Good Wife, so the Emmys' clear love for the show could carry over to her. I also wouldn't count out Elisabeth Moss or Christine Baranski.

Best Actor, Comedy

Will Win: Tony Shalhoub, Monk

Should Win: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

Dark Horse: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Snubbed: Jay Harrington, Better Off Ted

Tony Shalhoub has won this category so many times that I don't think the rest of the world's disdain will keep Emmy voters from giving it to him one final time. Though in recent years they've loved Alec Baldwin even more. Most people are rooting for Jim Parsons though, so maybe that will pay off?

Best Actress, Comedy

Will Win: Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie

Should Win: Tina Fey, 30 Rock

Dark Horse: Toni Collette, United States of Tara

Snubbed: Portia de Rossi, Better Off Ted

Emmy voters love Edie Falco, so expect her to be rewarded for making them forget about Carmela. But they also love Toni Collette playing multiple personalities. And they love Tina Fey. But Edie Falco will ultimately win this.

Best Supporting Actor, Comedy

Will Win: Ty Burrell, Modern Family

Should Win: Ty Burrell, Modern Family

Dark Horse: Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

Snubbed: Ed O'Neill, Modern Family

As long as this isn't a repeat for Jon Cryer, I'm happy with anybody who wins here. NPH absolutely deserves this award, but deserved it more the past 4 years. Eric Stonestreet would be the obvious Emmy pick, but Ty Burrell is really the stand-out. And while Chris Colfer's nomination was a pleasant surprise, he's probably too young and too dramatic a role to take it. But you never know.

Best Supporting Actress, Comedy

Will Win: Jane Lynch, Glee

Should Win: Jane Lynch, Glee

Dark Horse: Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

Snubbed: Lizzy Caplan, Party Down

This seems like one of the biggest no-brainers of the night, though Sofia Vergara is also hilarious. But how can they keep Sue Sylvester from adding another trophy to her case?

Emmy Reactions

You can find the full list of nominees elsewhere online, but overall I'm pretty happy. Most of the picks from my Wish List last night (that weren't complete longshots) found their way on, even some less obvious ones like Matthew Fox (for I believe the first time!) and Chris Colfer.

Things I'm Happy About:

Lots of love for Lost, including Best Drama, Best Actor (Matthew Fox), Best Supporting Actor (Terry O'Quinn and Michael Emerson), and Best Guest Actress (Elizabeth Mitchell)

Lots of love for Modern Family, with Comedy, 3 Supporting Actors, and 2 Supporting Actresses

Lots of love for Glee, with Comedy and an actor in each of the four major acting categories, plus guest nods for Mike O'Malley, Neil Patrick Harris, and Kristin Chenowith

Entourage was shut out

Christina Hendricks AND Elisabeth Moss for Mad Men

Martin Short got in for Damages

John Lithgow, Gregory Itzin, and Ted Danson in guest actor. Quite a strong category.

The fact that NPH got 2 nominations.

Things I'm Not so Happy About:

While I'm happy about Damages' 5 acting nominations (including 2 in guest), it still should have gotten nods for Drama and for Campbell Scott. I realize its place in Drama was taken by True Blood, another show I watch and like, and which just had its breakout year, but Damages was better

I'm aware Better Off Ted and Party Down nominations were never going to happen, but Portia de Rossi still should have gotten one.

I've only seen a few episodes of each, but Joel McHale and Timothy Olyphant deserved nominations.

How is Nurse Jackie a comedy?

Jon Cryer.

Overall, a good selection of what was actually good this season, rewarding the new breakout hits (Glee, Modern Family, The Good Wife) while letting long-running shows past their prime take a breather (Entourage, Grey's Anatomy, to a lesser extent The Office). We just better not see a Mad Men/30 Rock threepeat come fall.

Emmy Wish List

Tomorrow morning the Emmy nominations will be announced. Rather than doing any kind of involved list of predictions or picks, I figured I'd list a few possibilities in each category that I'd like to see nominated, regardless of whether there's any probability of that happening. So here's what I'm rooting for tomorrow - the likely and the longshots:

BEST DRAMA

Lost

Dexter

Damages

Mad Men

BEST COMEDY

Glee

Modern Family

Party Down

Better Off Ted

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA

Michael C. Hall, Dexter

Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Matthew Fox, Lost

Timothy Olyphant, Justified (even though I've only seen one episode of the show so far)

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA

Glenn Close, Damages

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA

John Lithgow, Dexter (he'll be in guest actor but should be here)

Terry O'Quinn, Lost

Michael Emerson, Lost

Campbell Scott, Damages

Martin Short, Damages

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA

Jennifer Carpenter, Dexter

Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

Rose Byrne, Damages

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY

Jay Harrington, Better Off Ted

Matthew Morrison, Glee

Adam Scott, Party Down

Joel McHale, Community

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY

Lizzy Caplan, Party Down

Tina Fey, 30 Rock

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY

Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother

Ty Burrell, Modern Family

Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

Ed O'Neill, Modern Family

Chris Colfer, Glee

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY

Jane Lynch, Glee

Portia de Rossi, Better Off Ted

Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

Julie Bowen, Modern Family

Megan Mullally, Party Down

WTF The Blind Side

This morning I watched Anne Hathaway and Tom Sherak read off the major Oscar nominations while I had breakfast (which I would certainly not be doing if I lived on the West Coast). For the most part, the Oscar bloggers had it right. I was most often wrong in my predictions when I tried to do something bold and different. The Last Station got the two acting nominees it was expected, Matt Damon and Penelope Cruz got in despite the weaknesses in their movies, and Lee Daniels did indeed get in for best director to show what the real best picture nominees were.

That's not to say there weren't some surprises. Maggie Gyllenhaal was able to ride the Jeff Bridges wave to a best supporting actress nod over Julianne Moore and the Inglourious Basterds ladies. Screenplay saw a surprise in each category, with The Messenger beating out (500) Days of Summer and (thankfully) Avatar, and In the Loop getting in for adapted. Perhaps the biggest non-best picture surprise came in animation, in which a movie I've never heard of got the fifth slot over more mainstream fare like Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs or Ponyo. Does anyone know what The Secret of Kells is? Is it Irish? Did it actually release in America this year?

But of course, the surprise that most people will be talking about today is the unexpected and unfortunate inclusion of The Blind Side in best picture. Now, to be fair, I haven't seen it, and it's in fact the only best picture nominee I haven't seen. But since everytime I watch the trailers I gag a little, I have a hard time believing it's really best picture material. So now I, like most Oscar-watching men in the country, am left with a dilemma. I haven't not seen a best picture nominee since Erin Brockovitch, and that was ten years ago. So do I suck it up and see The Blind Side, or do I agree to go 9 for 10 this year?

Finally, just saw the unannounced nominees, of which the category I care most about is Best Song. Thankfully "I See You" from Avatar and "Cinema Italiano" from Nine were left out, though the other new song from Nine still made it in. I'm still predicting and rooting for "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart for the win.

Now here's the nominees announced this morning:

Best Picture

Avatar

The Blind Side

District 9

An Education

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

Precious

A Serious Man

Up

Up in the Air

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

James Cameron, Avatar

Lee Daniels, Precious

Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

George Clooney, Up in the Air

Colin Firth, A Single Man

Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Carey Mulligan, An Education

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon, Invictus

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz, Nine

Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

Mo'nique, Precious

Best Original Screenplay

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

The Messenger

A Serious Man

Up

Best Adapted Screenplay

District 9

An Education

In the Loop

Precious

Up in the Air

Best Animated Film

Coraline

Fantastic Mr. Fox

The Princess and the Frog

The Secret of Kells

Up

Best Foreign Film

Argentinian Movie

Israeli Movie

Peruvian Movie

The Prophet

The White Ribbon

Oscar Nomination Predictions

On Tuesday, early in the morning, the Oscar nods will finally be announced, following what feels like 500 other award ceremonies. We'll get to see if ten nominees for best picture leads to some wacky mainstream picks, or just an expansion of typical Academy fare. So, while I fully admit to letting my personal preferences get in the way of serious conjecture, here are my predictions for how the top races will look, from most likely to least:

Best Picture

Avatar

The Hurt Locker

Up in the Air

Inglourious Basterds

Precious

Up

An Education

District 9

A Serious Man

(500) Days of Summer

I'm probably the only one thinking Summer could be nominated, but I figure there's got to be one out of left field pick, and Invictus feels like the most vulnerable of the expected nominees. That said, it's way more likely to be A Serious Man falling out and The Blind Side or Star Trek coming in.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

James Cameron, Avatar

Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Neil Blomkamp, District 9

The first four are pretty much locks, so it's only the last slot that may surprise. It could go to Lee Daniels to recognize what the best picture nominees would have been in a normal year, or to Clint Eastwood for who knows why. But I think they'll want to recognize Blomkamp.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

George Clooney, Up in the Air

Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Colin Firth, A Single Man

I feel pretty safe predicting these five, since the biggest challenger is Viggo Mortenson and I'm just not seeing it for The Road.

Best Actress

Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Carey Mulligan, An Education

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds

Again, the top four here are pretty much locks, and most expect Helen Mirren to take the fifth slot. But since I don't think many voters will watch The Last Station, general support for Inglourious Basterds could sneak Melanie Laurent in (as much as I'm tempted to put Zoe Saldana in slot #5).

Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Alfred Molina, An Education

Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker

While Christoph Waltz has the win in the bag, I'm less sure who will be joining him among the nominees. I can't see Matt Damon making it in since he pretty much just did an accent and played rugby, and I'm going against Christopher Plummer in The Last Station for the same reason as Helen Mirren. Since Christian McKay may suffer the same problem of people not seeing his movie, maybe the recent guild love will carry over for Hurt Locker into a supporting actor nomination.

Best Supporting Actress

Mo'nique, Precious

Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

Julianne Moore, A Single Man

Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds

I refuse to predict Nine for any major nominations, and not having seen The Messenger I'm doubting Samantha Morton too. So unless they stick Melanie Laurent in supporting actress (which they quite possibly will), I'll go with Diane Kruger.

Best Original Screenplay

Inglourious Basterds

The Hurt Locker

Up

(500) Days of Summer

A Serious Man

If the Academy goes crazy for Avatar, I suppose it could steal one of these slots (as could The Hangover), but I'm sticking with the five that deserve it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Up in the Air

An Education

Precious

District 9

Fantastic Mr. Fox

This is one of the more competitive categories, as I could totally see Julie & Julia, The Blind Side, or Invictus sneaking in, but I'll play it safe here.

The Ricky Gervais and James Cameron Show

When it comes to the Golden Globes, we watch more for the show than the awards. After all, it's supposed to be the more fun, wacky version of the Oscars, with alcohol actually served and everyone taking their wins a little less seriously. In that respect, tonight's entertainment factor was, as usual, less than might be hoped for. Sure, there was some incoherence (Felicity Huffman) and clearly under the influence of something speeches (Kevin Bacon), but generally it was the same old same old of awards shows.

Which is why it was nice to have Ricky Gervais there to keep things a little more interesting. Usually hosts are expected to follow the Billy Crystal or, more recently, Neil Patrick Harris model, keeping things positive and fun. Anyone who gets a little too snarky (Jon Stewart or Chris Rock, for example) get called a bad choice. So I fully expect most of the media to dismiss Gervais for either being too insulting, or, more likely, not going far enough.

But Gervais' "I don't give a shit" attitude, whether sincere or feigned, was refreshing for a job usually suited by those eager to please, and gave the show a different kind of energy. Whether making jokes at Mel Gibson's expense or bringing up UK vs. US Office yet again, he consistently made me laugh. And in a night filled with routine and unmemorable speeches (except for Robert Downey Jr., obviously), somebody had to. Although what is entertaining is seeing whose speeches they cut off and whose they don't. Meryl Streep? Can talk as long as she wants. Drew Barrymore? Martin Scorsese? Same deal. Everyone else? No such luck.

As for the awards themselves, they brought the usual mix of the expected and the unusual. I was fairly satisfied with the TV awards. Very happy with the well-deserved Dexter double dip for John Lithgow and Michael C. Hall (how is this his first win?). Probably should have taken best drama as well, but I won't complain about Mad Men's win. Also great to see Glee taking best comedy, but seriously, Chloe Sevigny over Jane Lynch for supporting actress? I realize it's hard to compare drama and comedy, and that I haven't watched Big Love since season 1 so how can I judge, but it still should have been Sue Sylvester.

In the movies things got a little more interesting. First of all, a big hooray for Nine's well-deserved shut-out in all categories. I guess the voters actually saw the movie. Or they listened to their friends and didn't. On the fully expected and deserved front, Mo'Nique, Christoph Waltz, and Up continued their awards sweeps that will continue through the Oscars. In toss-ups, Up in the Air stood out in a combined screenplay category cause it's really that good, Up got recognized for its great score, and Jeff Bridges got properly appreciated for Crazy Heart (though between here and on Conan, I'm starting to wonder if he's turning into Bad Blake). Crazy Heart also got recognition for having the only good song in the best song category, so suck on that "Cinema Italiano."

Moving to the odder wins, who would have expected The Hangover to take the top comedy/musical award? Certainly it wouldn't have been Nine, but I would have expected something a little more serious-seeming, like maybe (500) Days of Summer. So kudos to the Globes, then, for changing things up a little. The Hangover was just part of a streak towards more popular movies, which included Sandra Bullock winning for The Blind Side. Now, I haven't seen The Blind Side, and maybe her performance really is better than what's featured in the trailers, but this feels like the same instinct the HFPA had to give her 2 nods in the first place. Star whoring.

Of course, the biggest wins were Avatar's in drama and director. I have to admit, I'm disappointed that The Hurt Locker didn't take director, or anything for that matter. But my theory on the Globes is that their drama prize goes to whatever they think is going to take the Oscar. That explains past wins for movies that once seemed hot than faded by Oscar time, like Babel and Atonement. But since the foreigners have a less populist streak than the Oscars, if they're putting their bet on Avatar, it may really be unstoppable. Barring a surge from Hurt Locker or, looking less likely by the day, Up in the Air, this may just be a practice round for James Cameron before repeating at the Oscars.

Looking Ahead to the Oscars

Tomorrow Entertainment Weekly will give its predictions for Oscar nominations. Although they won't be announced until February, ten nominees for best picture means even more movies to see, and more time needed to catch up. So I figured now was as good a time as any to suggest what I think the ten nominees will be (while acknowledging a lot can change in a month).

Right now it's looking like there's four movies competing for the win, four movies that look pretty safe for the nomination, and two open slots with little to fill them. I think we can all agree this was a bad year to expand to ten nominees, but it does make it a bit less predictable.

Competing for the Win:

1. Up in the Air

The probable best picture winner. It's timely, it's got top-notch acting, writing, and directing (all of which will likely be nominated), and it's got that old Best Picture feel. It would have less of a chance in a stronger year, but for 2009 it feels like a champ.

2. Avatar

With super strong reviews and huge box office, Avatar will get people to watch the Oscars and stands a legit chance of winning. The Academy's general bias against genre movies combined with some weaknesses in the story may keep this from ultimately winning, but it's certainly a top contender.

3. The Hurt Locker

This may very well be the best movie of the year, and with more viewers it might stand a chance for Best Picture too. But having made only $12 million, a best picture win would be too big an insult to the moviegoing public. Still, a directing win for Kathryn Bigelow seems likely, and it should still manage nominations for picture, actor, and writing, among others.

4. Precious

Once a top contender, Precious has lost a lot of buzz and box office since its limited release surge into theaters. And having just seen it, I don't think people want to vote for the "feel miserable" movie during a recession. Still, Mo'Nique is the probable best supporting actress winner and Gabourey Sidibe should be nominated for best actress.

Likely to be Nominated:

5. Inglourious Basterds

People really love this movie, enough so that despite all its oddities it could probably even make a list of 5. I suppose residual embarrassment over Pulp Fiction's loss could put this into the front category, but I think this will have to stick with nominations for picture, directing, and writing.

6. Up

Anti-animation bias may have kept Wall-E out of the top 5, but with ten nominees Up should be safe.

7. Invictus

I haven't seen it, but it seems like the kind of populist feel-good movie people nominate and forget about. Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon will likely score nods as well.

8. An Education

I thought the problem here would be that people liked it but didn't love it, hence leaving it vulnerable. But since it's actually dividing most of the people I know who have seen it, it may not even be able to count on the "liked it" vote. Still, Carey Mulligan for actress and Nick Hornby for screenplay seem more than safe.

The two open spots:

Originally, these spots would have gone to Nine and The Lovely Bones. But since Nine is inarguably awful, I can't imagine it getting on here unless people vote for it without watching it (which, to be honest, seems plausible). And The Lovely Bones is supposedly so bad they pushed the release date to mid-January. So what's that leave?

9. A Serious Man

This has been seriously dividing audiences, but since fans tend to be really passionate about it, enough #1-3 votes seem likely to give it slot #9.

Beyond that I'm less sure. The last slot could go to some other seriously Oscar-y movie like A Single Man, Crazy Heart, or The Messenger, but my bet is it goes to something a little more commercial. Which seems most likely?

Star Trek or District 9

Both have been mentioned as possible nominees, and both have their serious fanbases. But with Avatar likely to get most of the sci-fi love, and having to compete with each other as well, I'm skeptical either makes it through.

Julie and Julia or It's Complicated

Pretty sure It's Complicated's bad reviews cancel it out, but Julie and Julia seems like a legitimate choice, even if it may be too lightweight for the Oscars.

The Hangover

If people vote for what they love, maybe a group of younger voters could push this through, though I highly doubt it.

Where the Wild Things Are or Fantastic Mr. Fox

Both are huge critics' choices, but the former wasn't equally loved by the public, and the latter will fall into the same anti-animation bias that Up is already trying to overcome.

So what do I think will take the last slot?

10. (500) Days of Summer

Nobody's taking it too seriously as a contender, but in a weak year with ten slots to fill, why not? It mixes the comedy and drama enough that it doesn't feel lightweight, is creative enough with the storytelling to feel original, and those that like it love it.

So those are my picks. What am I leaving out? What am I overvaluing? Let me know in the comments.

Welcome to Awards Season

I haven't written any Oscar posts yet this year, so what better time than the announcement of the Golden Globe nominations this morning. For those of you who haven't seen them yet, you can find the nominations here.

Movies:

On the drama side, very happy to see the strong showings for The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air, as completely expected as both may be, with Hurt Locker taking nods in best drama, screenplay, and director, and Up in the Air in drama, actor, screenplay, director, and double dipping in supporting actress (I certainly couldn't pick between them). Also happy to see the strong showing for Avatar, which I haven't yet seen but am more excited for than ever after all the good buzz. But Tobey Maguire in the poorly received Brothers over Jeremy Renner's breakthrough performance in The Hurt Locker? Seriously?

Over on comedy, very excited for the multiple nods to 500 Days of Summer, The Hangover for best comedy, and Matt Damon in The Informant. But it's in this category the HFPA are really showing themselves for the fame whores they are. Double nods for Meryl Streep, even though It's Complicated is currently at 38% on Rotten Tomatoes? And giving it a screenplay nod over such likely better movies as An Education, 500 Days of Summer, and (according to critics) A Serious Man? Also double nods for Sandra Bullock, and a nomination for Julia Roberts essentially just for being Julia Roberts. Still, the Robert Downey Jr. nomination makes me hope Sherlock Holmes lives up to expectations.

Lastly, expect the animation entries to all repeat at the Oscars (and you know it's been a good year for animation when I've already seen 4 out of 5 of the nominees), though it better be Up that takes it (as much as I like Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, and Coraline). Golden Globes usually have more foreign nominees I've heard of than the Oscars, as they don't have the same stupid restrictions, but all that really meant was Broken Embraces gets added on. Since A Prophet and The White Ribbon won't be out in the US until next year, this seems to be yet another off year for foreign films. What happened to the days of Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Life Is Beautiful, when people had actually seen some of the movies by Oscar time?

TV:

SO happy to see Glee and Modern Family getting nominations in best comedy. That race has gotten so tired with the same shows up there every single year, so it's expected but still satisfying to see the two great new shows being added to the list. But for an awards show so quick to reward the new and fresh (um...Hung?) over the older, established shows (hence Lost's perpetual absence), how is three-years-past-its-prime Entourage still on there? Replace that with How I Met Your Mother and you've got a great category.

Elsewhere in comedy, yay again to Glee for getting acting nods for Matthew Morrison, Lea Michele, and most deserving of all, Jane Lynch. Shame that nobody from Modern Family was recognized, but they'll likely fall into Arrested Development syndrome where the cast is so strong as an ensemble that voters will never be able to choose just one of them, especially with no real lead characters. And since the Globes combine comedy with drama, it's all the harder. But still glad NPH managed to find a spot even if his show didn't.

On to drama, where I was happy to see lots of love for Dexter, Mad Men, and True Blood. I've only seen two episodes of Dexter so far, but it's enough to convince me John Lithgow will be tough to beat in supporting, though I'd of course be very happy to see NPH (or Michael Emerson, for that matter) take it. Yay to January Jones and Jon Hamm, but that still of course leaves out a lot of the super talented cast. And if Lost isn't on here cause it's too old, then how is equally old but more played-out House still racking up the nominees?

Overall, a few WTF moments (Tobey Maguire and It's Complicated chief among them), but very few compared to years past. On the movie side, they're justifying the consensus that Up in the Air, The Hurt Locker, and Precious are the three to beat this year, while giving support to the idea that Avatar may soon join their company. On TV, they again proved cooler than the Emmys by going after the new instead of the same old. Let's hope Glee and Modern Family continue that streak this summer. And you'll be seeing more Oscar posts from me soon enough.

NPH Was Robbed, but Awesome

After the nightmare that was last year's reality show host experiment, the Emmys needed someone to chase away those painful memories. But Neil Patrick Harris did far more than that tonight, officially becoming the best awards show host out there.

Indeed, the Emmys were at their best whenever he was onstage. Unlike the Tonys which kept us waiting for it, the Emmys gave us NPH singing right off the bat, and his opening song was actually funny in addition to starting things off right. He not only kept the night running smoothly, but had enough well-chosen quips to keep even those long miniseries/TV movie sections from getting too dry. And his Dr. Horrible bit was easily the highlight of the night. If only it could have been a musical number. The fact that many winners felt the need to thank him for doing such a great job shows just how much he stood out from all the rest.

So how was it possible that he lost Best Supporting Actor? And to Jon Cryer, of all people! What were the Emmy voters smoking to reward Two and a Half Men over someone who not only plays the funniest character on TV, but has also proven himself in Dr. Horrible and the Tonys as well. Shame on you Emmy voters. Unforgivable.

Outside of that one egregious mistake, I was otherwise pretty pleased with the awards. If you look back at my picks and predictions, far more of my "should wins" won than my "will wins." I told you that you shouldn't listen to my predictions. So yay to the unexpected wins for Michael Emerson, Kristin Chenowith, and Cherry Jones, the first supporting actor on 24 to be recognized.

And while there were a lot of repeats from last year, the fact is that Mad Men, Alec Baldwin, and The Daily Show all deserved it, and 30 Rock and Glenn Close also did for the most part (both strong #2s in who I rooted for). I would have preferred to see Jon Hamm, Michael C. Hall, or Hugh Laurie win their first Best Actor award, though I understand Breaking Bad needs the attention more. And while I love Tina Fey, Toni Collette was the only winner in the top categories who didn't win last year (and she plays four characters).

However, none of that makes up for picking Jon Cryer over Neil Patrick Harris. The Emmys are just lucky that NPH was able to handle it like a pro, milking the loss for comedy. And they may have trouble finding excuses to ignore him next year. Since if the category hadn't been eliminated, he'd be winning an Emmy next year just for tonight. Oscars, here he comes.

Emmy Predictions

In case you forgot, the Emmy Awards are tomorrow (Sunday) night, and with Neil Patrick Harris hosting it may actually be worth watching, even if the awards are less than exciting. If you're on the fence, maybe this will help make up your mind: Dr. Horrible musical number. Yeah. That's what I thought. In the meantime, here are my predictions for how the awards part will go down. As predictable as they seem, I'm sure I'll still miss most. You should really never trust me on these things.

BEST DRAMA

Will Win: Mad Men

Should Win: Mad Men

Could Win: Breaking Bad?

Mad Men's second year was as good and arguably better than its first. It's hard to imagine anything keeping it from repeating.

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA

Will Win: Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Should Win: Michael C. Hall, Dexter

Could Win: Hugh Laurie, House

You could swap those three around if you like, since all three are deserving and all three have yet to win. I feel like it's Jon Hamm's year, but still don't be surprised if Bryan Cranston repeats for Breaking Bad, even if only critics watch that show.

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA

Will Win: Glenn Close, Damages

Should Win: Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

Could Win: Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

Elisabeth Moss deserves to win the Emmy for that season finale scene with Pete alone. But even if Damages wasn't at its best this season, Glenn Close was.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA

Will Win: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

Should Win: Michael Emerson, Lost

Could Win: Someone from Boston Legal

I'm not quite sure what to make of this category. William Hurt's a big name, but he wasn't all that great on Damages. John Slattery seemed more likely for Mad Men last year. So I'm gonna go with Aaron Paul, since people who watch Breaking Bad seem to like him, and the Emmys clearly like the show. Still, you can never underestimate their unexplainable love for all things Boston Legal. If only Jimmy Smits had submitted here instead of guest actor for Dexter.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA

Will Win: Hope Davis, In Treatment

Should Win: Rose Byrne, Damages

Could Win: Rose Byrne, Damages

Dianne Wiest won last year for In Treatment, so I see Hope Davis reaping the same benefit from that actors' showcase. I nearly put 24's Cherry Jones as my should win, since anyone who can say 24 dialogue with a straight face deserves praise, but I have to go with Rose Byrne, even if she's actually the lead on the show.

BEST COMEDY

Will Win: 30 Rock

Should Win: How I Met Your Mother

Could Win: How I Met Your Mother

Most people may disagree, but I'm going to go ahead and say it: How I Met Your Mother is a better show than 30 Rock. Furthermore, 30 Rock was especially inconsistent this year, with a dud in between every funny episode. Since Emmys judge on single episodes and buzz, that won't matter.

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY

Will Win: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

Should Win: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

Could Win: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

It's amazing how much people seem to love Jim Parsons on The Big Bang Theory. But there's still no arguing with El Generalissimo. Unless Tony Shalhoub wins for the 13th time.

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY

Will Win: Toni Collette, United States of Tara

Should Win: Toni Collette, United States of Tara

Could Win: Tina Fey, 30 Rock

Yeah, this was the year of Tina Fey and all, but Toni Collette played 4 completely different characters, and (mostly) kept from going too over-the-top. Hard to imagine bigger Emmy bait.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY

Will Win: Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother

Should Win: Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother

Could Win: Someone from 30 Rock

This is without a doubt NPH's year to win. I mean, he's the host! They can't let the host go home empty-handed! Plus, he should be collecting his 4th statue, not his first, for his (sorry, I have to) legendary performance as Barney Stinson. I'd be more worried about the guys from 30 Rock if there was just one of them, but I feel like 30 Rock fans may end up splitting their vote. And if Dwight or Drama wins, the Emmys will be beyond redemption.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY

Will Win: Amy Poehler, Saturday Night Live

Should Win: Kristin Chenowith, Pushing Daisies

Could Win: Kristin Wiig, Saturday Night Live

The Emmys are going SNL crazy this year, not only giving guest actress to Tina Fey but guest actor to Justin Timberlake for hosting (over 30 Rock's Jon Hamm and Alan Alda? That seems worthy of a "Really?!?! with Seth and Amy"). Since Amy Poehler won't take lead actress since her show sucks, they'll make it up to her here.

BEST REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM

Will Win: The Amazing Race

Should Win: Top Chef

Could Win: Hah!

The Amazing Race has won this award EVERY YEAR SINCE IT WAS CREATED. It's the biggest sure-thing of the night.

BEST HOST FOR A REALITY PROGRAM

Will Win: Ryan Seacrest, American Idol

Should Win: Padma Lakshmi and Tom Colicchio, Top Chef

Could Win: Phil Keoghan, The Amazing Race

This award should have been eliminated as punishment for last year's atrocity. I'm picking Ryan Seacrest cause I assume he owns half of the voters by this point, but I'm always going to root for Top Chef.

BEST VARIETY, MUSIC, OR COMEDY SHOW

Will Win: The Daily Show

Should Win: The Daily Show

Could Win: Saturday Night Live

The Daily Show has won I think the past six years or so, and has deserved it every single time. While this year's no exception, SNL had a few good sketches during election season, and Emmy voters are stupid enough to ignore the other 85% of the season that was crap.

So those are my predictions. Who are you rooting for? Who do you think is inevitable? And will you watch the awards, or just fast forward to the NPH parts?

This Year's Slumdog Millionaire?

When looking forward to what to see in the fall (and especially what to see for awards season), it's always good to see how things are playing at the festivals. Toronto in particular has become more and more important for launching potential Oscar hopefuls, most notably last year's winner Slumdog Millionaire. So what's this year's equivalent? Take a look:

Just like Slumdog, Up in the Air has been getting universally glowing reviews from everyone who's seen it. And with George Clooney doing a variation on his Michael Clayton character and Jason Reitman going a bit more dramatic than Juno and Thank You for Smoking (both festival favorites as well), it's easy to see why. So as the first of what will be many amendments to my top 10 fall must-sees, bump this one up to the main list.

Emmy Nods: More is Better

Like the upcoming Oscars, this year's Emmy Awards also saw an increase in nominees-per-category (albeit smaller and far less publicized). Instead of the normal five nominees, this year went up to 6. And with the nominees announced yesterday, many categories saw as many as seven nominees. I had feared more nominees would mean the same snubbing of good shows, just more bad shows getting on instead. I knew How I Met Your Mother would again be ignored, only for something like Family Guy to take its place. Thankfully, I was only half right.

With more nominees in each category, this might be the happiest I've ever been with the Emmy nomination selections. Long-running Emmy favorites that nobody I know watches (Two and a Half Men, Boston Legal) finally (somewhat) cleared out in favor of shows I actually watch. There were still some glaring omissions, but overall it's a good crop. Let's hope the Oscars work out so well.

Best Comedy

As I said, I expected the worst in this category, especially since there's really very few good comedies on TV. But thankfully they got most of them on here, giving How I Met Your Mother its first well-deserved nomination, along with an even more surprising pick, Flight of the Conchords. 30 Rock and The Office of course were there, of course, and there was probably no stopping way way past its prime Entourage (why do they still like this show?) and slipping-in-quality Weeds, but I'd take both of those over thankfully missing Two and a Half Men. But Family Guy? I guess all Emmy voters are secretly 13-year-old boys.

Best Drama

Largely a repeat of last year's strong line-up, I have no real complaints here. Lost, Mad Men, Dexter, and Damages all made it on, so I'm happy. And I'm sure Big Love and Breaking Bad fans are happy to see their shows get some love too. Maybe if I was further into True Blood I'd care, or have any hopes Battlestar Galactica would be recognized for its fantastic final season, but I don't. 6th nominee was House, if there was any question of that.

Acting - Comedy

Some nice surprises in supporting actor comedy, where 30 Rock double-dipped with Tracy and Kenneth, and Jeremy Piven was surprisingly left off (though since he's the absolute only reason to watch the show, it makes you question that best comedy nod even more). With Piven out of the way, this has got to be NPH's year. Do you think he'll give the award to himself? Also yay that Kristin Chenowith made sure Pushing Daisies got something, but where was the rest of the cast?

Acting - Drama

These sections were a bit more of a mixed bag for me, as some nice picks were balanced out by some disappointing snubs. For instance, great to see Elisabeth Moss recognized for Mad Men, but where were January Jones (who really shined this season), Vincent Kartheiser, and Christina Hendricks? Always happy to see love for Michael Emerson's Ben from Lost, but how could they fail to nominate both Josh Holloway and Elizabeth Mitchell, who were really the heart of the season? And while this isn't the Emmys' fault, why was Jimmy Smits submitted as guest actor for Dexter when he was in every episode and had a way bigger part than most of the regulars?

Anyway, those are just my gut reactions (posting a day later than most of this was written). What about you? Did you think this could have been BSG's year? Mounting a campaign for Family Guy to win comedy? Or are you boycotting the show because they left off Chuck, Blair, and Hannah Montana (and yes, every one of them submitted themselves this year)? Let me know in the comments.

And the Award for Awesome Goes to NPH

What's nice about the Tonys is how little the actual awards matter to the show. Sure, the winners are likely to get a big boost at the box office, so it certainly matters to them. But when a good portion of the awards weren't even broadcast (including real awards like best book of a musical), you know that's not the main focus.

No, like host Neil Patrick Harris said in his off-prompter opening, the Tonys are all about getting a taste of what's out there on Broadway, and figuring out what of the year's offerings is worth ponying up the cash to go see. I admit to not having too much of a vested interest in who won this year, having only seen Hair and Guys and Dolls, but I still feel like this was kind of a weak year. I mean, if Billy Elliot's doing that well, there can't be anything too great out there, right?

So the performances had some good and some bad. On the good side, I now definitely want to see Next to Normal, as the number they performed proved they earned that win for best score. And Hair had probably the most fun number of the night, as they danced and thrust all over audience members just like in the real show.

But too many shows seemed so determined to pick a big production number that they didn't pick a good song. Sure, watching Christopher Sieber dance on his knees was cool, but was that song really the best Shrek could do? And if West Side Story's main selling point is the bilingual nature of this production, why pick a song where the only word is "Mambo?" Billy Elliot's number was admittedly pretty cool, but it did nothing to convince me there's anything beyond dancing in it.

Of course, the reason I actually watched the Tonys this year wasn't for the singing, the dancing, and the Bret Michaels, but for host NPH. While he did an excellent job keeping things moving and tossing in a joke from time to time, I still wanted more. I get that non-Oscar awards shows try not to waste time, so the host isn't supposed to get long moments to himself, but why couldn't they just spend less time on the straight plays (I probably should care about them, but I don't)? I mean, why get NPH if they don't let him sing!

Well, it turns out I was wrong on that last point. Since my DVR cut off right before Billy Elliot was called best musical (like that was any surprise), I missed the single best part of the entire show: NPH's closing number. So for anyone in a similar situation (or the 99.999% of America who didn't watch), enjoy:

Another Lackluster Oscars Show

The first-time producers promised this year's Oscars show would be more fun and stay within 3 hours. The second promise was obviously a lie (it was 3.5 hours), but the first promise was equally hard to spot. The biggest change was bringing in theater man Hugh Jackman to host instead of a comedian, and not telling him he wasn't still hosting the Tonys. His opening musical number had its moments, and he brought a good level of energy to the show. But what was the point of that tribute to musicals, in a year that only saw Mamma Mia and High School Musical 3? Oh, because Jackman still thinks he's on Broadway.

There were also some changes to the way awards were handed out, having presenters give out multiple awards in a group. Less presenters meant time saved and, even more thankfully, less awkward stage banter (like Jack Black and Jennifer Aniston. Painful). The time saved was soon wasted by having former winners describe the nominees. I'm hoping next year they return to the film clips, because when old actors blabber on for awhile, I stop listening. For that matter, why was every nominee list read twice?

Finally, those show-killing video montages. While the genre tributes were still just as pointless, at least they were current. Anything is better than last year, when I think one montage theme was "movies about America." Seriously? Best was the Pineapple Express guys watching movies from the year. As they laughed at the serious dramas, The Reader once again learned what the cost was of taking that slot away from The Dark Knight, and I was entertained.

The awards themselves turned out to be even more free of surprises than the show surrounding it. Obviously not everything was locked up, since I only scored 16/24 on my Oscar predictions, but little happened worth raising an eyebrow for. Slumdog had a near-sweep with 8 wins, losing only to itself in Original Song and to The Dark Knight in a sound category. Sean Penn beat out Mickey Rourke for Best Actor, and Penelope Cruz held her lead in a competitive Best Supporting Actress race. But the only award that seemed like a real surprise was Best Foreign Film, in which some Japanese movie I've never heard of beat off favorites and Waltz with Bashir and The Class.

The speeches as well were the typical unmemorable parade of "thank you"s. Still, there were a few good moments. The Japanese guy who won Best Animated Short made up for beating Presto by ending with "Domo Arigato, Mister Roboto." And in easily the best speech of the night, Milk scribe Dustin Lance Black spoke to gays and lesbians, saying that God does love them and that someday soon they will have equal rights. Certainly a lot more positive than Sean Penn's message, that anyone who voted for Prop 8 will have shame for generations.

Anyway, these awards shows tend to feel boringly predictable at the time, but that's not always a bad thing. I wish Slumdog had lost some of the pre-Oscar awards, maybe giving SAG to Milk, just so those who saw it late could experience what I did many months ago. But with such a weak pool of nominees, it was the best picture and did deserve its wins. I wish The Dark Knight had gotten more than two awards, and I would have liked to see Mickey Rourke take Best Actor. But the Academy does deserve credit for not doing anything too boneheaded, like giving Benjamin Button Best Picture. In the end, predictable is better than wrong.