Showing posts with label Oscars. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oscars. Show all posts

Monday, February 28, 2011

An Oscarcast That Will Live in Infamy

It seems every year I write a variation on the same post about how the Oscars sucked in any given year. The banter's lame, the show's too long, the 20 minute interpretive dance number made absolutely no sense - there's always something to complain about. Which is why this year I had to stop for a moment and check the general consensus to make sure I'm not just repeating myself. Because in fact no, this year was not just the same old crap. This year really was particularly bad.

If you've read this blog at all in the past few months then you already know I think their choices for picture and director were awful. But what may have been less predictable is just how bad everything else was. I was skeptical of James Franco and Anne Hathaway as hosts, but figured they could somehow pull it off. Not so much. Rather than using the charm of his talk show bit in 127 Hours, James Franco came off as stiff and monotone the whole time, like he didn't want to be there. And while I think Anne Hathaway has the right energy for the job and could make a good host someday, she just wasn't given any good material. Plus somehow everyone I've talked to who watched the show thought they were high.

Nobody else did any better in trying to come up with something memorable. Kirk Douglas hijacked the show for about ten minutes. Then Melissa Leo hijacked it for another 15. How was she allowed to talk about nothing forever yet Aaron Sorkin got cut off after 30 seconds? Would a bad speech give the Academy the right to revoke her Oscar and give it to the far more deserving (and adorable) Hailee Steinfeld?

What else was there? I would applaud the return of the best song performances this year, except this had to be the worst year for best original song in my memory. The winner has to be the least memorable song Randy Newman has ever written. I admit that I did enjoy the auto-tuned Harry Potter, so I'll give them that. And the elimination of the long, pointless montages was a welcome decision. But that hardly makes up for what otherwise was an awkward, uncomfortable, and rather dull show.

The weak production puts even more focus on the awards themselves, which bucked the past four years' trend of actually rewarding good movies by taking us back to the '90s when any middling movie from Harvey Weinstein could win Best Picture. I had some hope Social Network might surprise when it went into the final four awards leading The King Sleeps 3-1. Clearly it wasn't a total lovefest if Speech wasn't getting the clean sweep.

But then something even the more pragmatic of Oscar predictors didn't expect happened: Tom Hooper won best director. A relative newbie whose direction was far from the best thing about the movie beat the vastly greater respected and more accomplished David Fincher, whose mark was on every frame of Social Network. It just doesn't really make sense. How did other directors make that decision? Who would pick him over ANY of the four other nominees? To be clear, I'm not saying Speech was poorly directed. It was perfectly adequately directed. But you could have handed that script to many a fellow Brit and gotten a similar result. The movie was a feat of writing and acting; not directing. And yet he's now an Oscar winner.

As for best picture, I had pretty much resigned myself to the inevitable, but it still sucks. I've already written enough about how strongly I feel The King's Speech is unworthy of the win, so I'll save you reading the same rant over again, but I still think it cheapens the meaning of the Oscars. Sure, we mock the Academy's choices every year and never take their decisions too seriously, but they had picked well for four years. Yet this year, joke institutions like the Golden Globes and the National Board of Review made better choices. What does that say of the validity of the Oscars as the highest award in the business?

Anyway, enough complaining. Goodbye 2010, hello 2011. Let's hope next year the Academy returns to awarding quality films instead of just sticking to their favorite subjects (British royals, Holocaust). And let's also hope The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is good, since David Fincher will probably win for it regardless. After all, he's now overdue. And that's how the Oscars work.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Final(ish) Oscar Predictions

After a whole lot of build-up, the Oscars finally air this Sunday, and to be honest, I've kind of stopped caring. Once it became clear The King's Speech was the heavy favorite to win I realized there's no point in paying attention to an awards ceremony willing to bestow its highest honor on such an irrelevant pick. Nevertheless, here are my current picks and predictions for what will happen on Sunday.

Best Picture
Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: The Social Network
Will Actually Win: The King's Speech
This is the category I've struggled with the most, and I'll probably change my mind five times before I finish this post. Because in truth, The King's Speech will almost certainly win. It won all 3 major guilds and is the more "traditional" pick. But at the end of the day, I still don't believe it. The King's Speech has been sitting in the frontrunner seat for about a month now, and that feels like enough time for the backlash to kick in. And The Social Network's win at the editing guild means there's reason to hold out hope, as silly as that may sound. I'm almost certainly wrong on this, but I think it's closer than people think, and I'd rather bet on what I'm rooting for than on a horrible mistake.

Best Director
Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Should Win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Biggest Competition: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Despite the win at the Directors Guild, it would take a clean sweep for Tom Hooper to repeat at the Oscars. The Oscars like to reward auteurs, not newbies. So this feels like a far safer bet for Social Network than Best Picture does.

Best Actor
Will Win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Should Win: James Franco, 127 Hours
Biggest Competition: James Franco, 127 Hours
There's not really any scenario in which Colin Firth doesn't win. Many think he's overdue from A Single Man last year and his movie has the most nominations total. But how cool would it be if the Oscar host won an award?

Best Actress
Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Biggest Competition: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Annette Bening's lost a lot of hype since the summer, and Black Swan just crossed the $100 million mark. Since Natalie Portman worked crazy hard for the part, expect her to be equally rewarded here.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Should Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Biggest Competition: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
If Geoffrey Rush wins this award, you KNOW The King's Speech is taking Best Picture. Cause otherwise this is clear cut win for Bale.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Biggest Competition: The ladies of The Fighter
Melissa Leo was considered the favorite here, but the tides have turned away from her as of late. Since she's also got to fight against Amy Adams (who I personally think gave a stronger performance), I give the edge to the newbie, who showed what a true breakout debut can be.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: The Kids Are All Right
Biggest Competition: Inception
With Social Network comfortably in adapted, and the writer getting lots of publicity for his decades-long quest to get this movie made, this is a no-brainer.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: The Social Network
Biggest Competition: True Grit
Since the screenplay is probably the best thing about it, and with The King's Speech comfortably in original, this is a no-brainer.

I'll keep it to straight predictions for the rest:

Best Documentary Feature
Inside Job

Best Animated Feature
Toy Story 3

Best Foreign Language Film
In a Better World

Best Film Editing
The Social Network

Best Cinematography
True Grit

Best Original Score
The Social Network

Best Original Song
"If I Rise" - 127 Hours

Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland

Best Visual Effects
Inception

Best Sound Mixing
Inception

Best Sound Editing
Inception

Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland

Best Makeup
The Wolfman

Best Animated Short
Day & Night

Best Live Action Short
Na Wewe

Best Documentary Short
Strangers No More

Monday, March 8, 2010

No Alarms and No Surrpises

The biggest mystery for me coming out of this year's Oscar ceremony was this: how did it still go past midnight? After all, it seemed like they cut every extraneous element to the show. No best original song performances. Only three montages. And far less awkward presenter banter (although the Cameron Diaz/Steve Carell bit had enough unfortunateness to make up for the next 3 hours combined). So seriously, with such a focus on just getting the awards done, how did the show still end the same time?

Yes, despite all the promises from the new producers that they would spice things up and deliver an Oscar show unlike anything we'd ever seen, this year mostly felt like an effort to get us in and out as quickly as possible. The awards went by fast and furious, and little was done to add any extra oomph. Sure, the Neil Patrick Harris opener went a long way, but this was his fourth awards show in the past year. His presence is kind of expected now. So while he was of course great, I assumed there would be more innovation to follow.

As far as Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin as duel hosts go, I'd give them a B. They, like Neil Patrick Harris, have the uncanny ability to spout out somewhat lame material and still make it funny based solely on their delivery. There was an almost effortless quality to their hosting, knowing they could coast on their personalities alone to still make things enjoyable. So while that was the case, they didn't do much more. With Neil Patrick Harris essentially doing the "monologue" section for them, they just had to step in and say a few words every now and then. Seemed like a pretty hands-off hosting affair. So while they certainly did their job, this was no Hugh Jackman situation where anyone would accuse them of revolutionizing the show.

As for the awards themselves, well, I predicted 16/24. I know that doesn't sound all that great, but I'm REALLY bad at predicting. And of the 8 I missed, most of them were my 2nd choices. If you poll the broader Oscar watching community, I doubt anyone would say there were any real surprises. Probably my biggest surprise came when Precious stole Up in the Air's best adapted screenplay award, but that "surprise" was more about the fact that Up in the Air really deserved it more. I also went against the consensus in predicting Inglourious Basterds for original screenplay over the expected Hurt Locker, proving consensus generally ruled out.

So what are the takeaways here? The Hurt Locker gets to go down in history as the best picture winner of 2009, and I'm totally fine with that. A lot of deserving frontrunners won their expected awards, like Kathryn Bigelow making history as the first woman to win best director, Jeff Bridges taking a lifetime achievement-ish award for his great performance in Crazy Heart, and Christoph Waltz and Mo'nique winning awards only unexpected because they stand so far above their competitors.

I'm disappointed they still had five people introduce the best actor awards, as it seemed to add that entire last hour to the show. Fun to try to figure out the connections, but otherwise just extra time wasted. However, I'm glad they introduced all the best picture nominees, even if there were ten of them. It helped me remember how much I loved Up in the Air, and even more so Up, to the point that I kind of wished Up had somehow managed to win best picture. And I certainly don't begrudge anyone the John Hughes tribute, which was easily one of the highlights of the night.

I feel like every year it's expected that everyone criticizes the Oscars for any number of reasons: for making picks either predictable or wrong, for the hosts being too conciliatory or too inflammatory, for being too long or insanely too long. So I don't want it to seem like I'm just going through a yearly ritual and kvetching. Because at the end of the day, the deserving movies and performances and craftsmen generally won, and the producers got us through the night in a perfectly reasonable way. Did I feel like this was a particularly innovative year outside of the ten best picture nominees? Not in the slightest. But there was nothing particularly offensive about it either. Mostly, I just hope this time next year there will be movies I loved even more, so that I'll feel even stronger about the outcome.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Oscar Predictions

As you may have heard, the Academy Awards are this Sunday night. So with a few days to go, I'm going on the record with my predictions. Feel free to follow me on your Oscar pools, but remember that I'm usually very wrong.

Best Picture
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Top Competitor: Avatar
Should Win: Up in the Air
This one's boiled down to The Hurt Locker vs. Avatar, if perhaps just for the David vs. Goliath ring to it. I'm rooting for Up in the Air mostly to be a contrarian, but Inglourious Basterds is the dark horse most likely to slip in. Still, while it could go in any direction, I'm feeling the Hurt Locker love right now.

Best Director
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Top Competitor: James Cameron, Avatar
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
There's a strong argument that picture and director will split between Hurt Locker and Avatar, and that the Academy may want to reward Cameron for his decade of work and serious innovations. I still expect Bigelow to be the first female director to win.

Best Actor
Will Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Top Competitor: Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Jeff Bridges or Jeremy Renner
Jeff Bridges is a very safe bet here, but if they REALLY love Hurt Locker Renner could surprise for his breakout role.

Best Actress
Will Win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Top Competitor: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Should Win: Carey Mulligan, An Education
If those of us who refuse to see The Blind Side can't understand how Bullock was even nominated, remember this: Actors vote for actors, and actors LOVE her. Gabby Sidibe might actually be more likely to surprise than Streep.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Top Competitor: Um.....
Should Win: Christoph Waltz
This contest ended months ago.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Mo'nique, Precious
Top Competitor: Someone from Up in the Air?
Should Win: Mo'nique
Again, not really much of a contest here.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Inglourious Basterds
Top Competitor: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
The Hurt Locker may very well win here, but I'm still betting on Tarantino for the win.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Up in the Air
Top Competitor: An Education
Should Win: Up in the Air
I think Up in the Air's super polished script is a safe bet, but I guess Precious or An Education could surprise.

Best Animated Film
Will Win: Up
Top Competitor: Um...
Should Win: Up
Another no-brainer.

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: A Prophet
Top Competitor: El Secreto de los Ojos
Should Win: Haven't seen any of them
The White Ribbon's the most well-known of the lot, but the foreign language branch of the Academy doesn't care about that. I hear Secreto is the most conventional and will hence probably win, but let's compromise on A Prophet.

Best Score
Will Win: Up
Top Competitor: Avatar
Should Win: Up
Up's music was great, therefore it will win.

Best Song
Will Win: "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart
Top Competitor: "Down in New Orleans" from Princess and the Frog
Should Win: "The Weary Kind"
It's the only song nominated that really deserves to be there, so it should be a clear victory.

Best Documentary
Will Win: The Cove
Top Competitor: Food, Inc.
Should Win: Food, Inc.
The Cove has won every single doc award for the year, so that will probably continue. But Fooc, Inc. was really really good.

Best Art Direction
Will Win: Avatar
Top Competitor: The Young Victoria
Should Win: Avatar
I don't really know what I'm talking about here, but I refuse to predict Nine for any victories. Seems like a good place for Avatar to take an award, but they do love period pieces in these categories...

Best Cinematography
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Top Competitor: Avatar
Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Again, Inglourious Basterds has a real shot, but I see it being between the two top-nominated movies. And here I think conventional filmmaking will win out.

Best Costumes
Will Win: The Young Victoria
Top Competitor: Bright Star
Should Win: I haven't even seen most of these movies, and for good reason.
I clearly have no idea what I'm talking about here, but period pieces always win here.

Best Makeup
Will Win: Star Trek
Top Competitor: The Young Victoria
Should Win: Star Trek
Did you recognize Eric Bana? Yeah, I didn't think so.

Best Film Editing
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Top Competitor: Avatar
Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Tends to go to the movie with the most noticeable editing, so again, that's Hurt Locker.

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Avatar
Top Competitor: District 9
Should Win: Avatar
Which of these movies reinvented cinema? Oh, right, that one.

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Avatar
Top Competitor: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Avatar
Avatar should be sweeping these tech categories.

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: Avatar
Top Competitor: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Avatar
May be a "different" category, but same deal.

Best Documentary Short
Will Win: The Last Truck: Closing of a GE Plant
Top Competitor: China's Natural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
I haven't seen nor read anything about these, so I'm basing my judgement on title alone. But the GE Plant one sounds timely, and the China one sounds depressing, so there you go.

Best Live Action Short
Will Win: The New Tenants
Top Competitor: Kavi
I don't really know much about this category, but I heard "Tenants" is really funny, and that "Kavi" is the serious one.

Best Animated Short
Will Win: A Matter of Loaf or Death
Top Competitor: Logorama
Wallace and Gromit won feature animated film in its year (I think), so I bet it takes short as well. Though Logorama is also a cool name.

I reserve the right to change my mind multiple times in the next few days, especially in those last three categories. Good luck with your Oscar pools, and we'll discuss more on Sunday!

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

WTF The Blind Side

This morning I watched Anne Hathaway and Tom Sherak read off the major Oscar nominations while I had breakfast (which I would certainly not be doing if I lived on the West Coast). For the most part, the Oscar bloggers had it right. I was most often wrong in my predictions when I tried to do something bold and different. The Last Station got the two acting nominees it was expected, Matt Damon and Penelope Cruz got in despite the weaknesses in their movies, and Lee Daniels did indeed get in for best director to show what the real best picture nominees were.

That's not to say there weren't some surprises. Maggie Gyllenhaal was able to ride the Jeff Bridges wave to a best supporting actress nod over Julianne Moore and the Inglourious Basterds ladies. Screenplay saw a surprise in each category, with The Messenger beating out (500) Days of Summer and (thankfully) Avatar, and In the Loop getting in for adapted. Perhaps the biggest non-best picture surprise came in animation, in which a movie I've never heard of got the fifth slot over more mainstream fare like Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs or Ponyo. Does anyone know what The Secret of Kells is? Is it Irish? Did it actually release in America this year?

But of course, the surprise that most people will be talking about today is the unexpected and unfortunate inclusion of The Blind Side in best picture. Now, to be fair, I haven't seen it, and it's in fact the only best picture nominee I haven't seen. But since everytime I watch the trailers I gag a little, I have a hard time believing it's really best picture material. So now I, like most Oscar-watching men in the country, am left with a dilemma. I haven't not seen a best picture nominee since Erin Brockovitch, and that was ten years ago. So do I suck it up and see The Blind Side, or do I agree to go 9 for 10 this year?

Finally, just saw the unannounced nominees, of which the category I care most about is Best Song. Thankfully "I See You" from Avatar and "Cinema Italiano" from Nine were left out, though the other new song from Nine still made it in. I'm still predicting and rooting for "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart for the win.

Now here's the nominees announced this morning:

Best Picture

Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'nique, Precious

Best Original Screenplay

The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up

Best Adapted Screenplay

District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air

Best Animated Film

Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up

Best Foreign Film

Argentinian Movie
Israeli Movie
Peruvian Movie
The Prophet
The White Ribbon

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Oscar Nomination Predictions

On Tuesday, early in the morning, the Oscar nods will finally be announced, following what feels like 500 other award ceremonies. We'll get to see if ten nominees for best picture leads to some wacky mainstream picks, or just an expansion of typical Academy fare. So, while I fully admit to letting my personal preferences get in the way of serious conjecture, here are my predictions for how the top races will look, from most likely to least:

Best Picture

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up
An Education
District 9
A Serious Man
(500) Days of Summer

I'm probably the only one thinking Summer could be nominated, but I figure there's got to be one out of left field pick, and Invictus feels like the most vulnerable of the expected nominees. That said, it's way more likely to be A Serious Man falling out and The Blind Side or Star Trek coming in.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Neil Blomkamp, District 9

The first four are pretty much locks, so it's only the last slot that may surprise. It could go to Lee Daniels to recognize what the best picture nominees would have been in a normal year, or to Clint Eastwood for who knows why. But I think they'll want to recognize Blomkamp.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Colin Firth, A Single Man

I feel pretty safe predicting these five, since the biggest challenger is Viggo Mortenson and I'm just not seeing it for The Road.

Best Actress

Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds

Again, the top four here are pretty much locks, and most expect Helen Mirren to take the fifth slot. But since I don't think many voters will watch The Last Station, general support for Inglourious Basterds could sneak Melanie Laurent in (as much as I'm tempted to put Zoe Saldana in slot #5).

Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Alfred Molina, An Education
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker

While Christoph Waltz has the win in the bag, I'm less sure who will be joining him among the nominees. I can't see Matt Damon making it in since he pretty much just did an accent and played rugby, and I'm going against Christopher Plummer in The Last Station for the same reason as Helen Mirren. Since Christian McKay may suffer the same problem of people not seeing his movie, maybe the recent guild love will carry over for Hurt Locker into a supporting actor nomination.

Best Supporting Actress

Mo'nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds

I refuse to predict Nine for any major nominations, and not having seen The Messenger I'm doubting Samantha Morton too. So unless they stick Melanie Laurent in supporting actress (which they quite possibly will), I'll go with Diane Kruger.

Best Original Screenplay

Inglourious Basterds
The Hurt Locker
Up
(500) Days of Summer
A Serious Man

If the Academy goes crazy for Avatar, I suppose it could steal one of these slots (as could The Hangover), but I'm sticking with the five that deserve it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Up in the Air
An Education
Precious
District 9
Fantastic Mr. Fox

This is one of the more competitive categories, as I could totally see Julie & Julia, The Blind Side, or Invictus sneaking in, but I'll play it safe here.

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Looking Ahead to the Oscars

Tomorrow Entertainment Weekly will give its predictions for Oscar nominations. Although they won't be announced until February, ten nominees for best picture means even more movies to see, and more time needed to catch up. So I figured now was as good a time as any to suggest what I think the ten nominees will be (while acknowledging a lot can change in a month).

Right now it's looking like there's four movies competing for the win, four movies that look pretty safe for the nomination, and two open slots with little to fill them. I think we can all agree this was a bad year to expand to ten nominees, but it does make it a bit less predictable.

Competing for the Win:

1. Up in the Air
The probable best picture winner. It's timely, it's got top-notch acting, writing, and directing (all of which will likely be nominated), and it's got that old Best Picture feel. It would have less of a chance in a stronger year, but for 2009 it feels like a champ.

2. Avatar
With super strong reviews and huge box office, Avatar will get people to watch the Oscars and stands a legit chance of winning. The Academy's general bias against genre movies combined with some weaknesses in the story may keep this from ultimately winning, but it's certainly a top contender.

3. The Hurt Locker
This may very well be the best movie of the year, and with more viewers it might stand a chance for Best Picture too. But having made only $12 million, a best picture win would be too big an insult to the moviegoing public. Still, a directing win for Kathryn Bigelow seems likely, and it should still manage nominations for picture, actor, and writing, among others.

4. Precious
Once a top contender, Precious has lost a lot of buzz and box office since its limited release surge into theaters. And having just seen it, I don't think people want to vote for the "feel miserable" movie during a recession. Still, Mo'Nique is the probable best supporting actress winner and Gabourey Sidibe should be nominated for best actress.

Likely to be Nominated:

5. Inglourious Basterds
People really love this movie, enough so that despite all its oddities it could probably even make a list of 5. I suppose residual embarrassment over Pulp Fiction's loss could put this into the front category, but I think this will have to stick with nominations for picture, directing, and writing.

6. Up
Anti-animation bias may have kept Wall-E out of the top 5, but with ten nominees Up should be safe.

7. Invictus
I haven't seen it, but it seems like the kind of populist feel-good movie people nominate and forget about. Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon will likely score nods as well.

8. An Education
I thought the problem here would be that people liked it but didn't love it, hence leaving it vulnerable. But since it's actually dividing most of the people I know who have seen it, it may not even be able to count on the "liked it" vote. Still, Carey Mulligan for actress and Nick Hornby for screenplay seem more than safe.

The two open spots:

Originally, these spots would have gone to Nine and The Lovely Bones. But since Nine is inarguably awful, I can't imagine it getting on here unless people vote for it without watching it (which, to be honest, seems plausible). And The Lovely Bones is supposedly so bad they pushed the release date to mid-January. So what's that leave?

9. A Serious Man
This has been seriously dividing audiences, but since fans tend to be really passionate about it, enough #1-3 votes seem likely to give it slot #9.

Beyond that I'm less sure. The last slot could go to some other seriously Oscar-y movie like A Single Man, Crazy Heart, or The Messenger, but my bet is it goes to something a little more commercial. Which seems most likely?

Star Trek or District 9
Both have been mentioned as possible nominees, and both have their serious fanbases. But with Avatar likely to get most of the sci-fi love, and having to compete with each other as well, I'm skeptical either makes it through.

Julie and Julia or It's Complicated
Pretty sure It's Complicated's bad reviews cancel it out, but Julie and Julia seems like a legitimate choice, even if it may be too lightweight for the Oscars.

The Hangover
If people vote for what they love, maybe a group of younger voters could push this through, though I highly doubt it.

Where the Wild Things Are or Fantastic Mr. Fox
Both are huge critics' choices, but the former wasn't equally loved by the public, and the latter will fall into the same anti-animation bias that Up is already trying to overcome.

So what do I think will take the last slot?

10. (500) Days of Summer
Nobody's taking it too seriously as a contender, but in a weak year with ten slots to fill, why not? It mixes the comedy and drama enough that it doesn't feel lightweight, is creative enough with the storytelling to feel original, and those that like it love it.

So those are my picks. What am I leaving out? What am I overvaluing? Let me know in the comments.

Monday, February 23, 2009

Another Lackluster Oscars Show

The first-time producers promised this year's Oscars show would be more fun and stay within 3 hours. The second promise was obviously a lie (it was 3.5 hours), but the first promise was equally hard to spot. The biggest change was bringing in theater man Hugh Jackman to host instead of a comedian, and not telling him he wasn't still hosting the Tonys. His opening musical number had its moments, and he brought a good level of energy to the show. But what was the point of that tribute to musicals, in a year that only saw Mamma Mia and High School Musical 3? Oh, because Jackman still thinks he's on Broadway.

There were also some changes to the way awards were handed out, having presenters give out multiple awards in a group. Less presenters meant time saved and, even more thankfully, less awkward stage banter (like Jack Black and Jennifer Aniston. Painful). The time saved was soon wasted by having former winners describe the nominees. I'm hoping next year they return to the film clips, because when old actors blabber on for awhile, I stop listening. For that matter, why was every nominee list read twice?

Finally, those show-killing video montages. While the genre tributes were still just as pointless, at least they were current. Anything is better than last year, when I think one montage theme was "movies about America." Seriously? Best was the Pineapple Express guys watching movies from the year. As they laughed at the serious dramas, The Reader once again learned what the cost was of taking that slot away from The Dark Knight, and I was entertained.

The awards themselves turned out to be even more free of surprises than the show surrounding it. Obviously not everything was locked up, since I only scored 16/24 on my Oscar predictions, but little happened worth raising an eyebrow for. Slumdog had a near-sweep with 8 wins, losing only to itself in Original Song and to The Dark Knight in a sound category. Sean Penn beat out Mickey Rourke for Best Actor, and Penelope Cruz held her lead in a competitive Best Supporting Actress race. But the only award that seemed like a real surprise was Best Foreign Film, in which some Japanese movie I've never heard of beat off favorites and Waltz with Bashir and The Class.

The speeches as well were the typical unmemorable parade of "thank you"s. Still, there were a few good moments. The Japanese guy who won Best Animated Short made up for beating Presto by ending with "Domo Arigato, Mister Roboto." And in easily the best speech of the night, Milk scribe Dustin Lance Black spoke to gays and lesbians, saying that God does love them and that someday soon they will have equal rights. Certainly a lot more positive than Sean Penn's message, that anyone who voted for Prop 8 will have shame for generations.

Anyway, these awards shows tend to feel boringly predictable at the time, but that's not always a bad thing. I wish Slumdog had lost some of the pre-Oscar awards, maybe giving SAG to Milk, just so those who saw it late could experience what I did many months ago. But with such a weak pool of nominees, it was the best picture and did deserve its wins. I wish The Dark Knight had gotten more than two awards, and I would have liked to see Mickey Rourke take Best Actor. But the Academy does deserve credit for not doing anything too boneheaded, like giving Benjamin Button Best Picture. In the end, predictable is better than wrong.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

And the Best Cursing Award Goes to...

Milk!

Awards Daily has a pretty amusing compilation of all the swearing, cursing, etc. from all of the best picture nominees. There may be some spoilers if you haven't seen the movie:



Biggest takeaways: Not much swearing in The Reader or Benjamin Button. Slumdog uses the word "slumdog" a lot. And Milk is easily the funniest one to watch.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Oscar Predictions

UPDATE: I'm switching Supporting Actress from Penelope Cruz to Viola Davis.

It's that time again. With the Academy Awards telecast airing this Sunday, it's time for me to do my final predictions. Let's hope I do better than I did with the Golden Globes.

Best Picture
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire or Milk
Should Have Been Nominated: The Dark Knight, Wall-E
Shouldn't Have Been Nominated: Benjamin Button, The Reader

It would be one of the biggest upsets in recent history if anything but Slumdog won, and I can't see anything besides possibly Milk having the power to do so. Benjamin Button's considered the biggest spoiler, but it gets very little love, and I suppose The Reader is still a possibility. But this is a category you can feel comfortable betting on.

Best Actor
Will Win: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Should Win: Mickey Rourke or Sean Penn, Milk
Should Have Been Nominated: Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Shouldn't Have Been Nominated: Brad Pitt, Benjamin Button

This is a really tight race that could go either way. Sean Penn perhaps gives a better performance, but he's won before and Mickey Rourke's got the kind of personal story voters like. That's why I'm betting on Rourke.

Best Actress
Will Win: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Should Win: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Should Have Been Nominated: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Shouldn't Have Been Nominated: Angelina Jolie, Changeling

The Reader may be Kate Winslet's weaker performance in 2008, but it's still Oscar-level work and she's still long overdue for a win. Anne Hathaway's still got plenty of nominations left in her, so the biggest competitor is Meryl Streep. Since Doubt is hardly Streep's best work, this should be an easy win for Winslet. Unless Melissa Leo creeps in as a dark horse...

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Should Win: Heath Ledger
Should Have Been Nominated: Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Shouldn't Have Been Nominated: All deserved it

The biggest no-brainer of the night.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis, Doubt
Should Win: Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Should Have Been Nominated: Rosemarie Dewitt, Rachel Getting Married
Shouldn't Have Been Nominated: Amy Adams, Doubt

The least predictable race of the night. Penelope Cruz is the frontrunner, so my gut says she's bound to lose.. But who can beat her? My bet is Viola Davis, who makes the most of her limited screen time. But I'm also kind of feeling a surprise upset by Taraji P. Henson, and I wouldn't count out Marisa Tomei either.

Best Director
Will Win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Should Have Been Nominated: Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Shouldn't Have Been Nominated: Stephen Daldry, The Reader

There's a slight chance voters may reward David Fincher to make up for Benjamin Button's loss in best picture, but I doubt it. This is about as much of a given as Slumdog for best picture.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Milk
Should Win: Milk
Should Have Been Nominated: Rachel Getting Married
Shouldn't Have Been Nominated: In Bruges

This one's a tight race between Milk and Wall-E, but I think enough people will mark down Wall-E for its lack of dialogue to give Milk the win. Though there's always a chance of an In Bruges sneak attack.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Have Been Nominated: The Dark Knight
Shouldn't Have Been Nominated: Benjamin Button

Another category Slumdog should easily carry. Some attention has been given to Benjamin Button's terrible script, but I think the most likely upset is Frost/Nixon. Still not gonna happen.

Now the Rest:


Foreign Film - The Class
Waltz with Bashir is the frontrunner, but as an animated documentary, it's way too weird for the stuck-in-the-past Academy.

Documentary - Man on Wire
It's won just about every award it's been up for. Have voters even seen the other films?

Animated Film - Wall-E
The second biggest no-brainer of the night.

Cinematography - Slumdog Millionaire
Benjamin Button is certainly beautiful, but Slumdog's camerawork is way more innovative.

Visual Effects - The Dark Knight
This could easily go to Benjamin Button, but I think voters want to make sure Dark Knight gets something.

Art Direction - Benjamin Button
Voters will leap at the opportunity to give Benjamin Button one of the 13 awards it's up for.

Costume Design - The Duchess
It always goes to the period piece.

Film Editing - Slumdog Millionaire
It usually goes to the film whose editing is most noticeable.

Makeup - Benjamin Button
The award Benjamin Button most deserves.

Score - Slumdog Millionaire
....Though if they go the traditional route, that's all Benjamin Button.

Song - "Down to Earth," Wall-E
The two Slumdog songs should split the vote, letting Peter Gabriel's deserving song win.

Sound Editing and Mixing - The Dark Knight
These categories are made for the blockbusters.

Short Film (Animated) - Presto
If Wall-E was a lesser Pixar film, Presto would have totally overshadowed it.

Short Film (Live Action) - Spielzeugland (Toyland)
I heard it was about the Holocaust. Oscar voters love the Holocaust.

Documentary Short - The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306
It's about the MLK assassination.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Oscar Night Musical

I guess they got Hugh Jackman to host for a reason. According to Entertainment Weekly (and others), the Oscar show will feature a big musical number in which Wolverine sings along with Beyonce, High School Musical's Zac Efron and Vanessa Hudgens, and Mamma Mia's Amanda Seyfried and Dominic Cooper.

It's nice that the first-time producers are trying to shake things up, but this is probably more likely to confuse the old folks than bring in any teenyboppers. Still, a big musical number has got to be more entertaining than another 20 minute long montage. And I'm curious to see how all those very different people will fit together onstage. So does knowing Zac, Vanessa, and Hugh are "all in this together" make you more likely to watch the Oscars this Sunday? Or are you more interested in that promise to keep the show under 3 hours?

Friday, January 30, 2009

Oscar Overload

As it has the past few years, AMC is doing a marathon of all five Best Picture nominees on the day before the Oscars, February 21st. The schedule goes like this:

10:30 AM Milk
1:05 PM The Reader
3:45 PM The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
7:15 PM Slumdog Millionaire
9:45 PM Frost/Nixon

I'm personally not sure who would really want to subject themselves to this kind of a marathon. At least two of the movies (The Reader, Benjamin Button) are way too heavy to make you want to watch more, and they come in the first half.

Though if Benjamin Button isn't going to end the marathon, following it with Slumdog is a good choice. No better way to wake up from the Brad Pitt slumber than with Slumdog's fast cutting, fun music, and hopeful story. And I like Milk as a starter, since it gets you excited despite its downer of an ending. Sad though that so few will end up making it to Frost/Nixon.

So, if over 12 hours of super-serious Oscarbait is your idea of a good time, click the link above. If, like me, you think that sounds kind of like torture, then best start catching the best pic nominees now.

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Watch the Best Original Song Nominees

While most Oscar categories require you to actually see the movies to make an informed opinion, all you need for best original song is youtube, especially when you can find the scenes. Yes, if Springsteen's "The Wrestler" had been nominated it probably would have and should have won, but that doesn't stop these three songs from being worthy. Catch these fast, cause I don't know how long the powers that be will let these vids stay online.

"Jai Ho," Slumdog Millionaire
WARNING: This plays at the very end of the movie with clips from throughout, so if you haven't seen Slumdog Millionaire yet, you may be spoiled.



"O Saya," Slumdog Millionaire
This is one of the first scenes of the movie, so enjoy spoiler-free.



"Down to Earth," Wall-E
I could only find the song with credits in French, but that shouldn't matter.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Oscar Nods Prove Irrelevance


BEST PICTURE
Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon, and The Reader

Turns out the Academy's love of Holocaust movies overpowers all else, leaving The Dark Knight out in the cold, Gotham night. This category just proves how out of touch the Oscars are with...everyone. This year, The Dark Knight and Wall-E were not only two of the most profitable movies, but two of the most critically acclaimed. The Oscars are the only ones not on board, sticking with typical period pieces. I won't bash The Reader because I haven't seen it yet, but I have trouble believing a movie with 52% top critics on Rotten Tomatoes is better than the defining movie of 2008. To give the Oscars some credit though, Dark Knight did get 8 nominations, so it's not leaving empty-handed. They corrected the Golden Globes' mistake by nominating Milk (with 8 nods). And the 10 nominations for Slumdog are all well-deserved. I would say Slumdog is a slamdunk, but Benjamin Button's 13 nominations and Milk's underdog status mean this race is still alive.

BEST ACTOR
Sean Penn (Milk), Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler), Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon), Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button), Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)

The only surprise here is that it matched the SAG nominations, leaving out Clint Eastwood and Leonardo DiCaprio. So much for the Academy's blind love of Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino got a goose egg (though Changeling managed 3 nods). I'm glad to see Richard Jenkins get his due, but I do wonder how anyone thought Brad Pitt's lifeless turn in Benjamin Button was better than Leonardo DiCaprio in Revolutionary Road. If they wanted higher ratings for the show, they would have, I don't know, nominated Dark Knight. This one's between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke.

BEST ACTRESS
Meryl Streep (Doubt), Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married), Kate Winslet (The Reader), Angelina Jolie (Changeling), Melissa Leo (Frozen River)

In the biggest surprise, voters put Kate Winslet in lead for The Reader, ignoring her performance in Revolutionary Road. So yeah, they hated Revolutionary Road (which only got 3 nods) and loved The Reader (5 nods). I also wasn't expecting Melissa Leo to make it in, as Frozen River hasn't had too much buzz for awhile. Without double nominations to confuse voters, I'm thinking Kate Winslet will be winning her first Oscar here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight), Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt), Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder), Josh Brolin (Milk), Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)

Glad to see Michael Shannon make it on here, giving Revolutionary Road something. But I'm disappointed it came at the cost of Dev Patel, leaving Slumdog with no acting nominations. The other nominees are all just for show though, since we all know this is Heath Ledger's award.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Viola Davis (Doubt), Amy Adams (Doubt), Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler), Taraji P. Henson (Benjamin Button)

Putting Kate Winslet in lead for The Reader left room for Doubt to double dip. Since they'll probably cancel each other out and Marisa Tomei has already won, I'm guessing this will go to Penelope Cruz. But if Taraji P. Henson wins, Benjamin Button might be taking down the big prize.

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle (Slumdog), David Fincher (Benjamin Button), Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon), Gus Van Sant (Milk), Stephen Daldry (The Reader)

Not nominating Dark Knight for best picture is one thing. But leaving Christopher Nolan out of directing? That's just absurd. Absurd. Guess that means Danny Boyle is winning.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Milk, Wall-E, Happy-Go-Lucky, Frozen River, In Bruges

I found this category the hardest to predict (I got 2/5), and I can't say I'm satisfied by the surprises. Sure, I haven't seen Happy-Go-Lucky or Frozen River, but In Bruges? Over Rachel Getting Married, The Wrestler, Burn After Reading, and Vicky Cristina Barcelona? Really? This better be a Milk victory.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Doubt, The Reader

Ok, no real surprises here, since Dark Knight and Revolutionary Road probably didn't stand a real chance. I'm gonna go with Slumdog for now, but any of those first three stand a decent chance.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Down to Earth (Wall-E), Jai Ho (Slumdog), O Saya (Slumdog)

I don't really understand why they didn't just go to 5 this year, since if there's no room for Bruce Springsteen's "The Wrestler," the category is too small. I too would have trouble choosing between the two Slumdog songs, but over Springsteen? At least we get to see MIA perform.

I'll do real predictions closer to the actual Oscars. In the meantime, I guess I need to go see The Reader.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Oscar Nod Predictions

Tomorrow morning the Oscar nominations will be announced, and that means it's time for some predictions. After my utter failure at predicting the Golden Globe winners, I'm going a bit more conservative this time around, mostly saying what everyone's expecting. But the Oscars always throw some curveballs, and movies like Wall-E, The Reader, Gran Torino, and Revolutionary Road could easily do better than expected. Here are my predictions in the top 8 categories (in order of likelihood):

BEST PICTURE

Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Frost/Nixon
The Dark Knight

Alternates - Wall-E, The Reader, Gran Torino

BEST ACTOR

Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Alternates - Richard Jenkins, The Visitor; Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road

BEST ACTRESS

Meryl Streep, Doubt
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Alternate - Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Josh Brolin, Milk
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Alternates - James Franco/Emile Hirsch, Milk; Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Alternate - Amy Adams, Doubt

BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon

Alternates - Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino; Stephen Daldry, The Reader

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Milk
Vicky Christina Barcelona
Rachel Getting Married
Wall-E
The Wrestler

Alternates - Burn After Reading, Happy-Go-Lucky

BEST ADAPATED SCREENPLAY

Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Doubt
The Reader

Alternates - The Dark Knight, Revolutionary Road

We'll find out how I did tomorrow. In the meantime, check out the Razzie nominations. I'm personally glad to see The Happening did so "well," as it deserved every one of those nominations. I can't say I've seen The Love Guru or The Hottie and the Nottie, but here's one award I'd rather let someone else decide.