Oscar Predictions

As you may have heard, the Academy Awards are this Sunday night. So with a few days to go, I'm going on the record with my predictions. Feel free to follow me on your Oscar pools, but remember that I'm usually very wrong.

Best Picture

Will Win: The Hurt Locker

Top Competitor: Avatar

Should Win: Up in the Air

This one's boiled down to The Hurt Locker vs. Avatar, if perhaps just for the David vs. Goliath ring to it. I'm rooting for Up in the Air mostly to be a contrarian, but Inglourious Basterds is the dark horse most likely to slip in. Still, while it could go in any direction, I'm feeling the Hurt Locker love right now.

Best Director

Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

Top Competitor: James Cameron, Avatar

Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

There's a strong argument that picture and director will split between Hurt Locker and Avatar, and that the Academy may want to reward Cameron for his decade of work and serious innovations. I still expect Bigelow to be the first female director to win.

Best Actor

Will Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Top Competitor: Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Should Win: Jeff Bridges or Jeremy Renner

Jeff Bridges is a very safe bet here, but if they REALLY love Hurt Locker Renner could surprise for his breakout role.

Best Actress

Will Win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Top Competitor: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Should Win: Carey Mulligan, An Education

If those of us who refuse to see The Blind Side can't understand how Bullock was even nominated, remember this: Actors vote for actors, and actors LOVE her. Gabby Sidibe might actually be more likely to surprise than Streep.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Top Competitor: Um.....

Should Win: Christoph Waltz

This contest ended months ago.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Mo'nique, Precious

Top Competitor: Someone from Up in the Air?

Should Win: Mo'nique

Again, not really much of a contest here.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Inglourious Basterds

Top Competitor: The Hurt Locker

Should Win: Inglourious Basterds

The Hurt Locker may very well win here, but I'm still betting on Tarantino for the win.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Up in the Air

Top Competitor: An Education

Should Win: Up in the Air

I think Up in the Air's super polished script is a safe bet, but I guess Precious or An Education could surprise.

Best Animated Film

Will Win: Up

Top Competitor: Um...

Should Win: Up

Another no-brainer.

Best Foreign Language Film

Will Win: A Prophet

Top Competitor: El Secreto de los Ojos

Should Win: Haven't seen any of them

The White Ribbon's the most well-known of the lot, but the foreign language branch of the Academy doesn't care about that. I hear Secreto is the most conventional and will hence probably win, but let's compromise on A Prophet.

Best Score

Will Win: Up

Top Competitor: Avatar

Should Win: Up

Up's music was great, therefore it will win.

Best Song

Will Win: "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart

Top Competitor: "Down in New Orleans" from Princess and the Frog

Should Win: "The Weary Kind"

It's the only song nominated that really deserves to be there, so it should be a clear victory.

Best Documentary

Will Win: The Cove

Top Competitor: Food, Inc.

Should Win: Food, Inc.

The Cove has won every single doc award for the year, so that will probably continue. But Fooc, Inc. was really really good.

Best Art Direction

Will Win: Avatar

Top Competitor: The Young Victoria

Should Win: Avatar

I don't really know what I'm talking about here, but I refuse to predict Nine for any victories. Seems like a good place for Avatar to take an award, but they do love period pieces in these categories...

Best Cinematography

Will Win: The Hurt Locker

Top Competitor: Avatar

Should Win: The Hurt Locker

Again, Inglourious Basterds has a real shot, but I see it being between the two top-nominated movies. And here I think conventional filmmaking will win out.

Best Costumes

Will Win: The Young Victoria

Top Competitor: Bright Star

Should Win: I haven't even seen most of these movies, and for good reason.

I clearly have no idea what I'm talking about here, but period pieces always win here.

Best Makeup

Will Win: Star Trek

Top Competitor: The Young Victoria

Should Win: Star Trek

Did you recognize Eric Bana? Yeah, I didn't think so.

Best Film Editing

Will Win: The Hurt Locker

Top Competitor: Avatar

Should Win: The Hurt Locker

Tends to go to the movie with the most noticeable editing, so again, that's Hurt Locker.

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Avatar

Top Competitor: District 9

Should Win: Avatar

Which of these movies reinvented cinema? Oh, right, that one.

Best Sound Editing

Will Win: Avatar

Top Competitor: The Hurt Locker

Should Win: Avatar

Avatar should be sweeping these tech categories.

Best Sound Mixing

Will Win: Avatar

Top Competitor: The Hurt Locker

Should Win: Avatar

May be a "different" category, but same deal.

Best Documentary Short

Will Win: The Last Truck: Closing of a GE Plant

Top Competitor: China's Natural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province

I haven't seen nor read anything about these, so I'm basing my judgement on title alone. But the GE Plant one sounds timely, and the China one sounds depressing, so there you go.

Best Live Action Short

Will Win: The New Tenants

Top Competitor: Kavi

I don't really know much about this category, but I heard "Tenants" is really funny, and that "Kavi" is the serious one.

Best Animated Short

Will Win: A Matter of Loaf or Death

Top Competitor: Logorama

Wallace and Gromit won feature animated film in its year (I think), so I bet it takes short as well. Though Logorama is also a cool name.

I reserve the right to change my mind multiple times in the next few days, especially in those last three categories. Good luck with your Oscar pools, and we'll discuss more on Sunday!