Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Final(ish) Oscar Predictions

After a whole lot of build-up, the Oscars finally air this Sunday, and to be honest, I've kind of stopped caring. Once it became clear The King's Speech was the heavy favorite to win I realized there's no point in paying attention to an awards ceremony willing to bestow its highest honor on such an irrelevant pick. Nevertheless, here are my current picks and predictions for what will happen on Sunday.

Best Picture
Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: The Social Network
Will Actually Win: The King's Speech
This is the category I've struggled with the most, and I'll probably change my mind five times before I finish this post. Because in truth, The King's Speech will almost certainly win. It won all 3 major guilds and is the more "traditional" pick. But at the end of the day, I still don't believe it. The King's Speech has been sitting in the frontrunner seat for about a month now, and that feels like enough time for the backlash to kick in. And The Social Network's win at the editing guild means there's reason to hold out hope, as silly as that may sound. I'm almost certainly wrong on this, but I think it's closer than people think, and I'd rather bet on what I'm rooting for than on a horrible mistake.

Best Director
Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Should Win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Biggest Competition: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Despite the win at the Directors Guild, it would take a clean sweep for Tom Hooper to repeat at the Oscars. The Oscars like to reward auteurs, not newbies. So this feels like a far safer bet for Social Network than Best Picture does.

Best Actor
Will Win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Should Win: James Franco, 127 Hours
Biggest Competition: James Franco, 127 Hours
There's not really any scenario in which Colin Firth doesn't win. Many think he's overdue from A Single Man last year and his movie has the most nominations total. But how cool would it be if the Oscar host won an award?

Best Actress
Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Biggest Competition: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Annette Bening's lost a lot of hype since the summer, and Black Swan just crossed the $100 million mark. Since Natalie Portman worked crazy hard for the part, expect her to be equally rewarded here.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Should Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Biggest Competition: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
If Geoffrey Rush wins this award, you KNOW The King's Speech is taking Best Picture. Cause otherwise this is clear cut win for Bale.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Biggest Competition: The ladies of The Fighter
Melissa Leo was considered the favorite here, but the tides have turned away from her as of late. Since she's also got to fight against Amy Adams (who I personally think gave a stronger performance), I give the edge to the newbie, who showed what a true breakout debut can be.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: The Kids Are All Right
Biggest Competition: Inception
With Social Network comfortably in adapted, and the writer getting lots of publicity for his decades-long quest to get this movie made, this is a no-brainer.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: The Social Network
Biggest Competition: True Grit
Since the screenplay is probably the best thing about it, and with The King's Speech comfortably in original, this is a no-brainer.

I'll keep it to straight predictions for the rest:

Best Documentary Feature
Inside Job

Best Animated Feature
Toy Story 3

Best Foreign Language Film
In a Better World

Best Film Editing
The Social Network

Best Cinematography
True Grit

Best Original Score
The Social Network

Best Original Song
"If I Rise" - 127 Hours

Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland

Best Visual Effects

Best Sound Mixing

Best Sound Editing

Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland

Best Makeup
The Wolfman

Best Animated Short
Day & Night

Best Live Action Short
Na Wewe

Best Documentary Short
Strangers No More


Elena said...

I firmly disagree with the documentary category.
Banksy's gonna take it.

Zander said...

I hope you're right! I love Exit Through the Gift Shop! But the documentary branch is notorious for going against the most popular option, though also won't go with a complete unknown, so Inside Job seems like a good compromise. Though Bowling for Columbine won so it could def still happen.