Final(ish) Oscar Predictions

After a whole lot of build-up, the Oscars finally air this Sunday, and to be honest, I've kind of stopped caring. Once it became clear The King's Speech was the heavy favorite to win I realized there's no point in paying attention to an awards ceremony willing to bestow its highest honor on such an irrelevant pick. Nevertheless, here are my current picks and predictions for what will happen on Sunday.

Best Picture

Will Win: The Social Network

Should Win: The Social Network

Will Actually Win: The King's Speech

This is the category I've struggled with the most, and I'll probably change my mind five times before I finish this post. Because in truth, The King's Speech will almost certainly win. It won all 3 major guilds and is the more "traditional" pick. But at the end of the day, I still don't believe it. The King's Speech has been sitting in the frontrunner seat for about a month now, and that feels like enough time for the backlash to kick in. And The Social Network's win at the editing guild means there's reason to hold out hope, as silly as that may sound. I'm almost certainly wrong on this, but I think it's closer than people think, and I'd rather bet on what I'm rooting for than on a horrible mistake.

Best Director

Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network

Should Win: David Fincher, The Social Network

Biggest Competition: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Despite the win at the Directors Guild, it would take a clean sweep for Tom Hooper to repeat at the Oscars. The Oscars like to reward auteurs, not newbies. So this feels like a far safer bet for Social Network than Best Picture does.

Best Actor

Will Win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Should Win: James Franco, 127 Hours

Biggest Competition: James Franco, 127 Hours

There's not really any scenario in which Colin Firth doesn't win. Many think he's overdue from A Single Man last year and his movie has the most nominations total. But how cool would it be if the Oscar host won an award?

Best Actress

Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Biggest Competition: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Annette Bening's lost a lot of hype since the summer, and Black Swan just crossed the $100 million mark. Since Natalie Portman worked crazy hard for the part, expect her to be equally rewarded here.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Should Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Biggest Competition: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

If Geoffrey Rush wins this award, you KNOW The King's Speech is taking Best Picture. Cause otherwise this is clear cut win for Bale.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Biggest Competition: The ladies of The Fighter

Melissa Leo was considered the favorite here, but the tides have turned away from her as of late. Since she's also got to fight against Amy Adams (who I personally think gave a stronger performance), I give the edge to the newbie, who showed what a true breakout debut can be.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: The King's Speech

Should Win: The Kids Are All Right

Biggest Competition: Inception

With Social Network comfortably in adapted, and the writer getting lots of publicity for his decades-long quest to get this movie made, this is a no-brainer.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: The Social Network

Should Win: The Social Network

Biggest Competition: True Grit

Since the screenplay is probably the best thing about it, and with The King's Speech comfortably in original, this is a no-brainer.

I'll keep it to straight predictions for the rest:

Best Documentary Feature

Inside Job

Best Animated Feature

Toy Story 3

Best Foreign Language Film

In a Better World

Best Film Editing

The Social Network

Best Cinematography

True Grit

Best Original Score

The Social Network

Best Original Song

"If I Rise" - 127 Hours

Best Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland

Best Visual Effects

Inception

Best Sound Mixing

Inception

Best Sound Editing

Inception

Best Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland

Best Makeup

The Wolfman

Best Animated Short

Day & Night

Best Live Action Short

Na Wewe

Best Documentary Short

Strangers No More