On Tuesday, early in the morning, the Oscar nods will finally be announced, following what feels like 500 other award ceremonies. We'll get to see if ten nominees for best picture leads to some wacky mainstream picks, or just an expansion of typical Academy fare. So, while I fully admit to letting my personal preferences get in the way of serious conjecture, here are my predictions for how the top races will look, from most likely to least:Best Picture
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up
An Education
District 9
A Serious Man
(500) Days of Summer
I'm probably the only one thinking Summer could be nominated, but I figure there's got to be one out of left field pick, and Invictus feels like the most vulnerable of the expected nominees. That said, it's way more likely to be A Serious Man falling out and The Blind Side or Star Trek coming in.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Neil Blomkamp, District 9
The first four are pretty much locks, so it's only the last slot that may surprise. It could go to Lee Daniels to recognize what the best picture nominees would have been in a normal year, or to Clint Eastwood for who knows why. But I think they'll want to recognize Blomkamp.
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Colin Firth, A Single Man
I feel pretty safe predicting these five, since the biggest challenger is Viggo Mortenson and I'm just not seeing it for The Road.
Best Actress
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Again, the top four here are pretty much locks, and most expect Helen Mirren to take the fifth slot. But since I don't think many voters will watch The Last Station, general support for Inglourious Basterds could sneak Melanie Laurent in (as much as I'm tempted to put Zoe Saldana in slot #5).
Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Alfred Molina, An Education
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
While Christoph Waltz has the win in the bag, I'm less sure who will be joining him among the nominees. I can't see Matt Damon making it in since he pretty much just did an accent and played rugby, and I'm going against Christopher Plummer in The Last Station for the same reason as Helen Mirren. Since Christian McKay may suffer the same problem of people not seeing his movie, maybe the recent guild love will carry over for Hurt Locker into a supporting actor nomination.
Best Supporting Actress
Mo'nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
I refuse to predict Nine for any major nominations, and not having seen The Messenger I'm doubting Samantha Morton too. So unless they stick Melanie Laurent in supporting actress (which they quite possibly will), I'll go with Diane Kruger.
Best Original Screenplay
Inglourious Basterds
The Hurt Locker
Up
(500) Days of Summer
A Serious Man
If the Academy goes crazy for Avatar, I suppose it could steal one of these slots (as could The Hangover), but I'm sticking with the five that deserve it.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Up in the Air
An Education
Precious
District 9
Fantastic Mr. Fox
This is one of the more competitive categories, as I could totally see Julie & Julia, The Blind Side, or Invictus sneaking in, but I'll play it safe here.
5 comments:
No way does Up get as many nominations as you're giving it.
A reliable source (Flute Cop) told me that Samantha Morton was pretty terrific in The Messenger.
(And that The Fucking Blind Side will probably get nominated for best picture)
Will you blog your reaction to actual noms on Tuesday?
I think A Serious Man is more vulnerable in best pic category than Invictus, although I didn't see either...but definitely don't see 500 sneaking in there. More or less agree with you on the rest. I really, really hope Melanie Laurent and Anthony Mackie get nods!
You're probably right about A Serious Man vs. Invictus, but my thinking is that nobody's putting Invictus in their top 5, while a select group will for A Serious Man.
500 Days of Summer is purely wishful thinking. Sadly, so is Melanie Laurent and Anthony Mackie.
you realize you're the source of 90% of my cultural literacy, right? thanks for that :)
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